Pre-Market Report - Fed Minutes, ISM Nonmanufacturing, ICSC Sales Data

Wake Up Call

Tuesday's focus should be on the Fed Minutes release and ISM Nonmanufacturing Index. Also look for weekly same-store sales data this morning and within this pre-market report. The corporate newswire highlights EPS from K.B. Home (NYSE: KBH) and International Speedway (Nasdaq: ISCA).

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Pre-Market Report

In the early AM, look for the International Council of Shopping Centers' (ICSC) Weekly Same-Store Sales Report. Last week's data covering the period ending March 26 showed same-store sales increased just 0.2% on a week-to-week basis, but that was an improvement from the prior week's 0.1% weekly sales decline. On a year-to-year basis, sales increased 2.6%, which compared to the prior week's 3.0% annual growth. Redbook reported a 2.6% yearly gain, versus the 2.4% gain it reported the week before. Look for the latest data before the opening bell Tuesday.

ISM's Nonmanufacturing Index for March will be published at 10:00 AM Tuesday. Bloomberg says economists are looking for a mirror image of February, with the index sticking at 59.7, which by the way was its six-year high. Economists' forecasts range from 57.7 to 68.8. Any reading above 50 still signifies economic expansion for the all important services sector of the American economy.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its meeting minutes for its March gathering at 2:00 PM. Fed chatter is getting less predictable as we approach an inflection point, where the Fed will move from dovish to hawkish, barring new economic downtown. That is a possibility that is not out of the question. As it becomes less predictable, the FOMC releases have the ability to shock an uncertain marketplace.

Several Fed-Heads are due to speak Tuesday. Look for Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart's morning address at the Atlanta Bank's Financial Markets Conference. During the lunch hour, catch Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota's address at her bank's workshop on homeownership. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser is up to moderate a panel on weathering the financial crisis at 1:30 PM at the Atlanta Fed event.

In overseas news, look for markets to be closed in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. The Reserve Bank of Australia has a meeting scheduled for Tuesday. GFMS will publish its 2011 copper survey.

On the corporate wire, look for IPO lockup curbs to expire on Ellington Financial (NYSE: EFC) and Global Education (Nasdaq: GEDU). Sasol (NYSE: SSL), Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) will be speaking with analysts and investors. Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) takes part in the Cloudforce Paris 2011 event and the UBS Investment Bank Bus Tour Tuesday (NYSE: UBS).

The day's EPS schedule highlights news from Exceed (Nasdaq: EDS), International Speedway (Nasdaq: ISCA), Verint Systems (Nasdaq: VRNT), Zep (NYSE: ZEP), Angiodynamics (Nasdaq: ANGO), K.B. Home (NYSE: KBH), Layne Christensen (Nasdaq: LAYN), Mitcham Industries (Nasdaq: MIND), Mobile Telesystems (NYSE: MBT), Semileds (Nasdaq: LEDS) and some others.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

True Unemployment Rate Four-Tenths Above Government's Estimate

Introducing the Wall Street Greek Unemploy- ment Rate Estimate™ and our Under- Employment Rate Estimate.

We estimate the true unemployment rate at 9.2%, four-tenths of a point higher than the government's estimate for March. It's our view that disenchanted elderly long-term unemployed Americans have dropped out of the workforce, but might return if demand for employees increases. Certainly, a great many of them currently need to find income, or will need to in the near future, as savings and benefit streams prove inadequate to maintain long-lived and learned standards of living. Thus, we view true unemployment understated.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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True Unemployment Rate Four-Tenths Above Government's Estimate

Last month we audaciously stated the unemployment rate was understated by a good half of a percentage point. This month, even as many thought unemployment would increase as discouraged long-term unemployed Americans were expected to return to the workforce, the unemployment rate audaciously cut off another tenth of a percentage point.

So what the heck is going on here then? Has The Greek joined the ranks of the perennially pessimistic? Do we need to take a look in the mirror and reassess our perspective? I don't think so. We've been optimistic about homebuilders' shares, even while there is all the reason to continue to beat them down, according to housing stock detractors. We were positive on manufacturing when the economy was in a sinkhole. So, I don't think we've a skew to the dark side, not at all in fact!

Review of the Data

The Employment Situation Report for March 2011 showed an improvement in the unemployment rate to 8.8%, from 8.9% in February. You'll recall that we estimated true unemployment closer to 9.4% last month and under-employment still in the mid-teens. At this point, let's calculate underemployment based on available data, and then take a look deeper, and estimate what true unemployment and under-employment likely are, given the anomalous shrinkage of the labor force that should correct as job demand increases. I'll go ahead and call this the Wall Street Greek Unemployment Rate Estimate.

Under-Employment Rate

Calculating this month's under-employment rate: If we add back the 2.434 million (previously 2.73 mln.) displaced workers counted in March to the labor market, and include the 8.433 million (previously 8.34 mln.) underemployed part-timers in the unemployed count, adjusted unemployment improves to ((13.542M + 2.434M + 8.433M) / (153.406M + 2.434M)) * 100 = 15.66% in March.

Under-Employment Rate Trend:

March 2011: 15.7%

February 2011: 15.9%

January 2011: 16.1%

December: 16.7%

November: 17.0%

October: 17.0%

September: 17.1%

August: 16.7%

July: 16.5%

June: 16.5%

May: 16.6%

April: 17.1%

March: 16.9%

February: 16.8%

January: 16.4%

The Problem

Much of the criticism here and elsewhere of the Labor Department's data has been centered around a mysterious shrinking of the Civilian Workforce that occurred over a period of just a few months. That shrinkage conspicuously coincided with a dramatic improvement in the unemployment rate, from 9.8% just four months ago, to 8.8%, as reported for March 2011. But, over the course of the last two months, the civilian labor pool has actually increased, gaining 160K workers in March.

Behind this correction in the labor force must be one of just a few possible truths. One possibility is that folks had dropped out of the labor pool from November through January, as we have posited here; this could have occurred for a couple reasons at least. It may be due to the delayed unemployment insurance extension renewal in December, which might have driven some out of the umbrella of unemployment coverage and into low-paying employment that they may have otherwise avoided. Another possibility is that our highlighting of the mysterious drop led to a government fix of some sort of anomaly. I lean toward the first possibility, as I continue to have hope in my nation's leadership and people generally, however naïve that may be.

Due to the demographics of our nation, heavy with an aging population, there is pressure on it as folks retire. A great many of our aged Americans simply cannot afford to retire though. Indeed, this past weekend, CBS' Sunday Morning ran a story on the disenchantment of many unemployed older Americans. It is possible that these older folks have dropped out of the job market, having given up on finding work after many months of disappointment.

America's labor pool benefits from other factors though. We attract people from all over the world, and so immigration and graduation of the young into the working age, should do fine to offset and outweigh the affect of our retiring elderly. Though perhaps it's not enough to offset the anomaly we are seeing among disenchanted elderly now. Still, if we also include the many illegal workers crossing the borders from Mexico and Canada, well then it's clear that the labor pool is a growing one over the long-term, though perhaps more so on an informal basis. Over the long-term, we'll also have to account for the draw from our talented workforce into developing emerging markets.

Getting to the Real or Wall Street Greek Unemployment Rate Estimate

While the workforce grew by another 160K in March, that still leaves it 601K short of November's tally. However, a decline in the denominator is not a problem in isolation. The problem comes when we compare the change in the unemployed with the change in employed Americans over that same span. While 976K more people were counted as "employed" since November, 1557K less people were counted as "unemployed." Where did the extra unemployed people go to, some 601K unaccounted for Americans?

If we consider they may have retired (from both the labor force and unemployment), then we might find the difference. You see, we have 601K fewer folks in the labor force and a difference of 601K folks between the change in employed and unemployed. Have that many people really retired, fallen ill or died, or have many of them simply fallen off the radar, yet while remaining unemployed? Perhaps the growth in the labor pool over the last couple months is the start of the discouraged returning to look for work again, which would imply the unemployment rate could increase again as it normalizes.

The difference between the employment increase and unemployment decrease matches the 601,000 Americans no longer considered part of the civilian labor force. Therefore, we add back the 601K lost and unaccounted for Americans, and we find March's more likely unemployment rate, or the Wall Street Greek Unemployment Rate Estimate, sits at 9.2% (versus the government's 8.8%) and the Wall Street Greek Underemployment Rate Estimate at 16.0% (against government's 15.7%).

It's important to note though, that while our estimates for unemployment and underemployment are higher, we are also marking an improving trend. Our unemployment calculation for March at 9.2% marks a two-tenths of a percentage point gain over February's 9.4%. Also, our under-employment estimate for March, at 16.0%, marks an improvement over February's 16.3%.

Wall Street Greek Unemployment Estimate Trend for 2011:

March: 9.2%

February: 9.4%

January: 9.2%

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Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Factory Orders Fumble in February

Factory Orders fell 0.1% in February, but all is not lost. While there's an inclination to fear the worst, given the latest turn in several forward looking economic indicators, our review of the latest manufacturing data does not have us up in arms, at least not immediately. However, don't get me wrong, the report does sound an alarm about the economy.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Factory Orders Fumble in February

Factory Orders fell 0.1% in February, yes, but all is not lost dear friends. As we reviewed the economic report, which required plenty of coffee in this particular case, we found appeasing factors that quelled our concern a bit. With opening day baseball playing in the background, we reviewed the relatively bland economic statistics, so forgive me if I accidentally calculate an OBA in place of an inventory ratio.

What we found is that an upward revision to January's factory orders played against February's percentage change. January orders were revised higher, to 3.3%, from the 3.1% rate initially reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for a 0.5% increase for this reported month, so at least some of the difference between expectations (+0.5%) and the result (-0.1%) is explainable by the prior month revision. Furthermore, we would have likely had a positive change in February, instead of a negative change, if the revision did not occur.

Also quelling our concern is the fact that January orders were so strong, so that perhaps some of what might have been ordered in early February was instead called in at the end of January. This is the reason many economic data points review several months combined, and why some companies no longer offer monthly data. With that said, perhaps we should not have expected much from February, given January’s strength.

If we exclude the big-ticket transportation sector from the order data, we find new orders actually increased by 0.1%. The transportation sector posted a big new order decrease of 1.5% in February. Transportation has been down four out of the last five months. Durable goods orders, also down 4 out of 5 months, fell 0.6% after a 3.7% increase in January. Nondurables increased by 0.3%.

Shipments increased for the sixth consecutive month, growing by 0.3% in February. That's good news. Unfilled orders rose by 0.5%, but before you get antsy, realize that this data-point will increase when economic activity is on the rise. What should be concerning is that the Unfilled Orders–to–Shipments Ratio was up to 5.64, from 5.63. When the increase is not proportional, taking into account how proportions might change as the level of activity changes, that's when we raise an eyebrow (literally in The Greek's case). Inventories increased by 0.8%, but again, we need to look at inventory in proportion to sales activity. The Inventory-to-Shipments Ratio did rise though, to 1.26 from 1.25.

Taking a closer look at the industries measured by the report, we find interesting strength in several areas. Industrial Machinery Shipments, for one, posted very impressive growth, rising 16% in February. However, closer inspection shows a significant drop in January shipments that was basically made up for in February. The same thing happened in Farm Machinery, which was up 12.7% in February. This might be part of the reason Deere (NYSE: DE) was up 2.6% today.

Aluminum and Nonferrous Metals data seems to show an interesting growth trend, with shipments up 4.4% in February, following 2.6% and 3.8% increases in the prior two months. But how much of that do you think is due to price increase? I would say it's probably a significant reason for the growth here. Hey, that shouldn’t matter for Alcoa (NYSE: AA) though, when it reports results shortly, but it matters for the economy as it distorts the view of real growth. Alcoa's shares have been moving up heading towards its EPS report. We also saw Nondurable Farm Products post shipments increases, again likely on price change.

With regard to autos, shipments increased 1.6% in February, 0.2% in January and 0.1% in December. Shipments of Light Trucks and Utility Vehicles have also gained, rising 5.4%, 5.7% and 6.3% over the last three months. The report does not provide new order activity for these segments though. Noise will clutter automobile statistics in the months ahead though, due to the logistics nightmare tied to the disruption of production in Japanese plants.

As far as orders go, when excluding transportation, there is a noticeable decelerating trend over the last three months. The trend shows orders rose only 0.1% in February, down from 0.7% growth in January, which was down from 3.0% growth in December. That is concerning, and might be more than just a lull.

Aluminum orders gained 4.2% in February, with gains also posted in the two months prior. Mining, Oil Field and Gas Field Machinery Orders were up each of the last two months, rising 22.4% in February. Given the intensification of focus on energy independence, this is more good news for these machinery makers. Computers and Electronic Products Orders have hit a dry spell, sort of meandering around limbo, with orders up just 0.1% in February.

In conclusion, I would not be too worried about the month's decrease in order activity in February, due to its following such a strong January. However, the steadily slowing pace of order activity excluding transportation over the last three months might be a warning sign that the manufacturing strength that optimists keep pointing to might be pulled out from under them.

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Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.