Jobless Claims Sound Yet Another Economic Warning Siren

A troubling trend only intensified with Thursday’s release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data for the period ending April 30, 2011. While the government blamed the deterioration on exogenous factors, and while much of the popular press bought in, we can’t help to note the softness seen in the service sector last month and other impacts we expect from important increases to gasoline prices.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Jobless Claims Sound Yet Another Economic Warning Siren

The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report showed new filers for unemployment insurance benefits spiked up by 43,000 in the latest period, increasing to 474K. The federal government tried to lay blame on anomalous factors, but the week’s data marked the continuation of an increasingly troubling trend begun several weeks ago. That trend is illustrated by the four-week moving average, which rose by 22,250 in this latest period, to 431,250. We’ve documented its creeping to and above the market-despised 400K psychological threshold.

The government listed three specific anomalous issues at play, including a spring break holiday in New York that is not covered by seasonal adjustment; a new emergency benefits program in Oregon and auto plant shutdowns caused by supply chain issues tied to the disaster in Japan. Firstly, one of these issues, the spring break, only applies to the latest period, and the rising trend has extended for at least three weeks now. Secondly, the supply chain issue may only be temporary, but it is still affecting Americans in a real way. Income streams have been reduced, and those families still have inflexible expense streams to cover, and so discretionary spending will be affected at those households. Finally, the Oregon issue is perhaps now capturing a small group of unemployed Americans who were otherwise lost through the cracks, and so the data was previously understating need. In other words, there’s no good news in anomalous issues, even if they are completely to blame. The fact is that more people needed help last week.

The problem is though that it would appear anomalous issues are not completely to blame. Rather, consumer spending is seeing direct impact from high gasoline prices. As spending declines, we see decreased business in the important service sector, which was illustrated by the just reported ISM Nonmanufacturing Index. The service sector measure fell to 52.8 in April, down from 57.3 the month before (when we presciently authored our article, Beginning of the End for the Service Sector). That in turn will inevitably drive layoffs, and while Challenger’s Announced Job-Cuts data did not agree with our thesis in April, the creeping seen in the weekly jobless count has. By the way, we captured that change as well.

So while much of the popular press wants to buy into government excuses, we see the evidence as overwhelming, the economy is marking the effects of high priced gasoline. This latest constraint to a once spoiled American consumer is too important to not have deep impact to our economy. As price hikes continue in consumer goods as well, as announced by Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) and others, a vulnerable American consumer should weigh more heavily on a vulnerable small business sector. The result, if not miraculously mitigated, should be slippage back into recession.

FYI:
Looking at the weekly claims data, the insured unemployment rate stuck at 3.0% in the April 23rd ending period. Also, the total number of benefits claimers under all programs decreased by 171,547, to 8.0 million, but for the April 16 ending period.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending April 16 were in Alaska (6.0 percent), Puerto Rico (4.8), Oregon (4.4), Pennsylvania (4.2), California (4.1), Wisconsin (4.1), Rhode Island (3.9), Idaho (3.9), New Jersey (3.9), Nevada (3.8), and Montana (3.8).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 23 were in New Jersey (+5,326), Massachusetts (+4,027), Pennsylvania (+2,306), Ohio (+1,700), and Connecticut (+1,601), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-1,861), North Carolina (-1,662), Missouri (-1,618), New Mexico (-1,417), and Arizona (-1,138).



Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), State Street (NYSE: STT), Janus (NYSE: JNS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB) and TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Mortgage Activity Normalizes and Offers Clearer Insight

Over the past several weeks, mortgage activity has been skewed by an FHA premium increase. Prospective buyers rushed to beat the costly change, driving a burst in government sponsored mortgage activity. A counter-reaction followed, as Purchase activity dropped off in the week after the deadline. Thus, this week’s data offers us clearer insight into the important spring selling season, though we suspect the data is still tainted a bit by the FHA deadline.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Mortgage Activity Normalizes and Offers Clearer Insight

Over the past several weeks, mortgage activity has been skewed by an FHA premium increase. Prospective buyers rushed to beat the costly change, driving a burst in government sponsored mortgage activity. A counter-reaction followed, as Purchase activity dropped off in the week after the deadline. Thus, this week’s data offers us clearer insight into the important spring selling season, though we suspect the data is still tainted a bit by the FHA deadline.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Mortgage Activity for the week ending April 29, 2011. The MBA noted its Market Composite Index gained 4.0% through the period, driven mostly by refinancing activity.

The MBA’s Refinance Index gained 6% on the week, aided some by lower mortgage rates. Contracted rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell to 4.76%, from 4.8% in the prior week, while rates on 15-year contracts fell to 3.96%, from 4.03%. Refinancing activity increased to 62.7% of overall mortgage activity, up from 61.6% the week before. Certainly, the refinancing share benefited from exaggerated low levels of current purchase activity.

On a year-to-year basis, Purchase Activity is down 36.9%, which is certainly partly due to that latest counter-reaction to the rush to meet the FHA deadline. However, much of this contrast is due to last year’s unnaturally lifted housing market, as prospective first time buyers locked in the special tax break offered by the government. Also, Easter likely contributed, even though we’re measuring the week after the holiday. I know I did not kick up my gears until this week, and I suppose the malaise in stock trading on Bright Monday shows many others followed that slow post holiday recovery trend. There’s nowhere else to go then but up for Purchase Activity now, and this last week’s data shows perhaps the start of that. Purchase Activity increased 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 1.1% on an unadjusted basis.

Real estate growth and all other economic activity are unfortunately facing a relatively new and rough headwind. Gasoline prices are clearly affecting consumer spending, and so a vulnerable economy that was anticipated by us and others to produce the start of housing growth (off rock bottom lows mind you), is now threatening to stall in its tracks.



Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), BB&T (NYSE: BBT), CIT (NYSE: CIT), Bank United (NYSE: BKU), First Citizens (OTC: FCNCA.PK), Synovus (NYSE: SNV), United Bankshares (Nasdaq: UBSI), Hampton Roads Bankshares (Nasdaq: HMPR), WesBanco (Nasdaq: WSBC), City Holding (Nasdaq: CHCO), Sandy Spring (Nasdaq: SASR), First Citizens (OTC: FCBN.OB), SCBT Financial (Nasdaq: SCBT), Wilmington Trust (NYSE: WL), WSFS Financial (Nasdaq: WSFS), Southside Bancshares (Nasdaq: SBSI), Stellar One (Nasdaq: STEL), Union First Market (Nasdaq: UBSH), Eagle Bancorp (Nasdaq: EGBN), First Bancorp (Nasdaq: FBNC), Ameris (Nasdaq: ABCB), The Bancorp (Nasdaq: TBBK), First Community (Nasdaq: FCBC), Capital City (Nasdaq: CCBG), Financial Institutions (Nasdaq: FISI), National Bankshares (Nasdaq: NKSH), Citizens & Northern (Nasdaq: CZNC), Charter Financial (Nasdaq: CHFN), Seacoast Banking (Nasdaq: SBCF), TIB Financial (Nasdaq: TIBB), American National (Nasdaq: AMNB), United Community (Nasdaq: UCBI), Middleburg Financial (Nasdaq: MBRG), Heritage Financial (Nasdaq: HBOS), Zions Bancorp (Nasdaq: ZION), East West Bancorp (Nasdaq: EWBC), City National (NYSE: CYN), Bank of Hawaii (NYSE: BOH), SVB Financial (Nasdaq: SIVB), Westamerica (Nasdaq: WABC), Cathay General (Nasdaq: CATY), Umpqua (Nasdaq: UMPQ), Glacier Bancorp (Nasdaq: GBCI), Pacific Capital (Nasdaq: PCBC), PacWest (Nasdaq: PACW), Western Alliance (NYSE: WAL), First National Alaska (OTC: FBAK.OB), First Interstate Bancsystem (Nasdaq: FIBK), Nara (Nasdaq: NARA), West Coast (Nasdaq: WCBO), TriCo (Nasdaq: TCBK), Territorial (Nasdaq: TBNK), Washington Banking (Nasdaq: WCBO), Bank of Marin (Nasdaq: BMRC), Hanmi (Nasdaq: HAFC), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), United Bankshares (Nasdaq: UBSI), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), MB Financial (Nasdaq: MBFI), Astoria Financial (NYSE: AF), New York Community (NYSE: NYB), Hudson City (Nasdaq: HCBK), People’s United (Nasdaq: PBCT), First Niagra (Nasdaq: FNFG), Capitol Federal (Nasdaq: CFFN), Washington Federal (Nasdaq: WFSL), Investor’s Bancorp (Nasdaq: ISBC), Northwest Bankshares (Nasdaq: NWBI), Sterling Financial (Nasdaq: STSA), Ocwen (NYSE: OCN), Flagstar (NYSE: FBC), Provident (NYSE: PFS), Colombia Banking (Nasdaq: COLB), Kearny (Nasdaq: KRNY), Brookline (Nasdaq: BRKL), Dime Community (Nasdaq: DCOM), Flushing Financial (Nasdaq: FFIC), Danvers (Nasdaq: DNBK).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Business News Musings - EPS Misses and Geithner's Gallant Debt Deeds

Today's Coffee

The day after a long awaited American victory lifted U.S. markets and the dollar, the broader indices have continued their drift lower today. Several corporate earnings warnings and troubling forecasts have added an irregular spin to a usually well-set positive corporate earnings season. We also received a rate hike by the RBI, Factory Orders and auto sales data, among other points.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Business News Musings

It takes work for companies to mess up earnings, since they set the bar as low as possible. Yet today, bad news (or less good than expected) from Pfizer (NYSE: PFE, down 4.1%), Sears (Nasdaq: SHLD, down 9.8%), Computer Sciences (NYSE: CSC, down 13%) and Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM, down 5.7%) added on to news flow recently received from the likes of Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM), to weigh on the broader market.

Intensifying market pressure tied to political jockeying around a critical debt-limit legislation and a recent warning from Standard & Poor’s caught a break today from Timothy Geithner. The Treasury Secretary sent a letter to Congress today, the third in a series, alerting the bumblers of the extreme circumstances in store in the absence of some sort of budget resolution, and in the near-term, a debt limit hike. As the government is now on target to reach its borrowing limit on May 16, and given that it does not look likely to pass a debt limit increase by then, the Treasury Secretary has found some other troubling ways to extend the fumes for another few miles, or more specifically, to August 2nd. We hope to have more to say about this later, but for now, it's important to note that it simply brought more market focus to the debt limit deadline and the unsavory actions the Treasury Chief will have to engage in to extend it.

Factory Orders were reported for the month of March this morning. The report produced a revision to February, showing growth of 0.7%, rather than the 0.1% decrease initially reported. Since Durable Goods Orders for March came in up 2.5%, economists were forecasting stronger Factory Order growth of 2.0% for March, based on Bloomberg’s survey. Today’s data showed an even better level of activity, with orders increasing by 3.0%, so we cannot blame the broader economy this day.

April’s Motor Vehicle Sales trickled in through the day. Economists were looking for the aggregate data to show April’s domestic motor vehicle sales running at an annual rate of 9.9 million, which would mark an increase above the March pace of 9.7 million. Including imports, estimates were upward of 13 million for April, with March sales at a 13.1 million annual rate. General Motors (NYSE: GM) looks to have excelled, with its sales rising 27% in the U.S. in April. GM said its stellar performance was driven by sales of compact vehicles. Ford (NYSE: F) fell short of expectations, with its U.S. sales rising 13% in April. Overall, its sales were up 26%, driven by smaller engine trucks and its fuel efficient vehicles.

Tuesday’s regular weekly same-store sales data from ICSC and Redbook found the wire this morning. Easter played havoc with comparisons, since it falls on different days in different years. ICSC noted a 0.8% week-to-week decrease, as the week before Easter sees holiday driven consumer spending; we measured the week after with this report. On a year-to-year basis, ICSC reported a 2.8% increase, but Redbook noted a 5.5% gain. You just cannot read anything into this data due to the Easter skew, but Chain Store Sales, coming later this week, should allure nonetheless.

In overseas news this morning, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked its repo rate and reverse repo rate by 50 basis points each. The growth tempering action sent the BSE SENSEX 30 Index down 2.4% and weighed on developed markets currently supported by emerging growth nations. In other words, the move to temper inflation in India was no support to U.S. stocks today, though perhaps good for its long-term health also.

Gold, silver and oil prices eased again Tuesday, but the dollar ceded its short-term strength before midday. The dollar was lifted by the elimination of al-Qaeda founder, Osama Bin Laden. However, as time passes, the budget deficit, debt limit and sovereign rating risks threaten it, not to mention inflation.

In corporate news, company investor and analyst meetings are being held by Allied Nevada Gold (AMEX: ANV), Albemarle (NYSE: ALB), Leica, FirstEnergy (NYSE: FE) and A.H. Belo (NYSE: AHC). Look for earnings results from American Capital (Nasdaq: ACAS), American Financial (NYSE: AFG), Amtrust Financial (Nasdaq: AFSI), Anadigics (Nasdaq: ANAD), Archers Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), Aspen Technology (Nasdaq: AZPN), Avis Budget (NYSE: CAR), Avon (NYSE: AVP), Baltic Trading (Nasdaq: BALT), Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD), Bridgepoint Education (NYSE: BPI), BTU International (Nasdaq: BTUI), Callidus Software (Nasdaq: CALD), Cardionet (Nasdaq: BEAT), CBS (NYSE: CBS), Cephalon (Nasdaq: CEPH), Charter Communications (Nasdaq: CHTR), Checkpoint Systems (NYSE: CKP), Cognizant (Nasdaq: CTSH), Coherent (Nasdaq: COHR), Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA), Corinthian Colleges (Nasdaq: COCO), Denny’s (Nasdaq: DENN), DineEquity (NYSE: DIN), Dole Food (Nasdaq: DOLE), Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK), Emerson Electric (NYSE: EMR), FEI (Nasdaq: FEIC), First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR), Foster Wheeler (Nasdaq: FWLT), Genco Shipping (NYSE: GNK), Green Mountain Coffee (Nasdaq: GMCR), Harris (NYSE: HRS), Henry Schein (Nasdaq: HSIC), Hyatt (NYSE: H), Jack Henry (Nasdaq: JKHY), Jazz Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: JAZZ), Kulicke & Soffa (Nasdaq: KLIC), Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), Level 3 Communications (Nasdaq: LVLT), Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO), MasterCard (NYSE: MA), MetroPCS (NYSE: PCS), Molex (Nasdaq: MOLX), Mylan (NYSE: MYL), Network Equipment Tech (NYSE: NWK), Oneok (NYSE: OKE), OpenTable (Nasdaq: OPEN), Papa John’s (Nasdaq: PZZA), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD), Plantronics (NYSE: PLT), Primerica (NYSE: PRI), Rowan (NYSE: RDC), Scott’s Miracle Gro (NYSE: SMG), Sirius XM (Nasdaq: SIRI), Six Flags (NYSE: SIX), Solar Senior Capital (Nasdaq: SUNS), Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE), Standard Parking (Nasdaq: STAN), Techne (Nasdaq: TECH), Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC), Clorox (NYSE: CLX), Hain Celestial (Nasdaq: HAIN), THQ (Nasdaq: THQI), ValueClick (Nasdaq: VCLK), Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) and a few more.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.