Arnold Schwarzenegger Another Cheater Bites The Dust

Some Men have been cheating on women since the beginning of time. It’s in
their nature they are a visual sex.  Arnold is in the Tiger Woods, Michael
Jordan, Mel Gibson, Newt Gingrich and John Edwards cheaters club. This
list could go on for days, I don’t have days. Arnold Schwarzenegger after
years of cheating finally bites the dust, his wife finally had enough.
What I don’t get is how Maria forgave and took back this cheater. I am
sorry I could not do it; I don’t care how much in love or lifestyle I
have. The cheater would be kicked to the curve and I would get paid. I say
once a cheater always a cheater. For all you ladies who have the affairs
with married men, you can best believe that what goes around comes around.

LM

http://perezhilton.com/category/arnold-schwarzenegger/

Double Dipping Home Prices Not Inconsistent with Our Housing Growth Forecast

The same factors that allowed me to be a successful stock-picker have played true in making me a prescient economic forecaster on occasion. However, at the time of my selections, and my forecasts, I always face turbulent waters driven by the tide of embedded norms. Just as I led in the forecasting of the housing and financial sector downturns, I am once again driving into the tide with my forecasts for housing growth and homebuilder share appreciation. The tide though, is from the herd, not professional economists, who are mostly on board for real estate growth this year.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: Nasdaq: ITIC, NYSE: BAC, OTC: FMCC.OB, OTC: FNMA.OB, NYSE: GS, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: SRS, NYSE: URE, NYSE: IGR, NYSE: XIN, Nasdaq: RYHRX, Nasdaq: TRREX, NYSE: TOL, NYSE: HOV, NYSE: DHI, NYSE: BZH, NYSE: LEN, NYSE: KBH, NYSE: PHM, NYSE: NVR, NYSE: GFA, NYSE: MDC, NYSE: RYL, NYSE: MTH, NYSE: BHS, NYSE: SPF, NYSE: MHO, AMEX: OHB, NYSE: VNQ, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: JPM, Nasdaq: HOFT, NYSE: ETH, NYSE: PIR, NYSE: WSM, NYSE: HD, NYSE: LOW, AMEX: VAZ, AMEX: NKR, AMEX: MZA, AMEX: NXE, AMEX: NFZ, Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Nasdaq: AVTR, NYSE: AIV, NYSE: EQR, NYSE: AVB, NYSE: UDR, NYSE: ESS, NYSE: CPT, NYSE: SNH, NYSE: BRE, NYSE: HME, NYSE: MAA, NYSE: ELS, NYSE: ACC, NYSE: CLP, Nasdaq: AGNC, NYSE: SUI, NYSE: AEC, NYSE: PMT and AMEX: TWO, NYSE: SPG.

Double Dipping Home Prices Not Inconsistent with Our Housing Growth Forecast

While most economic gurus of popular press and television fame, status gained by playing to the crowd, are now announcing the double-dipping of housing, I must focus your attention to the more capital pertinent information for security market investors. That’s because, while falling home prices continue to threaten investors in real estate, though only for a short time longer in my estimation (barring catastrophe), the turn in the housing market from consolidation to growth should offer opportunity for investors in the shares of nimble publicly traded homebuilders.

So yes, no surprise, the double-dip in home prices I’ve been forecasting for over a year now has come to fruition; though I have not been talking about it daily lately, since its arrival has been obvious for months. Rather, I’ve been looking forward to what everyone will be talking about next month, housing market growth. Still I’ll review the facts for those of you who have not seen the data or read any of the fluffy reporting of it yet, or heard any of the loudly spoken sensationalism around it on the TV.

Professors Case and Shiller, in conjunction with Standard & Poor’s, reported on home prices this week. The S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index for March marked a new recession level low, effectively recording a double-dip in housing prices. For the first quarter, housing prices fell 5.1% against the prior year, taking prices back to their mid-2002 levels. 12 of 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) hit new lows in March, and 18 were down from February.

I suppose it gets difficult forecasting real estate growth when just last week the Pending Home Sales Index was reported down dramatically in April. The measure of contract signings fell 11.6%, to a mark of 81.9. Considering that this was a month-to-month decrease, we cannot blame the prior year tax credit deadline, which did in fact drive a burst of activity last year. The First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit deadline was certainly a factor behind the 26.5% drop-off from last year’s April peak in the Pending Home Sales Index.

That said, I agree with Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), who reasons that the month-over-month decline may be due to temporary factors. He and I have both spoken of the monkey wrench that unexpected Middle Eastern unrest has thrown into the vulnerable engine of our nascent economic recovery. Libya has played an important role in the run-up of gasoline prices, which in turn has destroyed consumer confidence and appears to have finally impacted consumer spending.

While the commodity price surge also has secular drivers, the wettest April in 20 years was extraordinary. Home shopping is not often done online, so the weather matters. Potential home buyers like to walk through a home before signing a contract, and the rainiest April in memory could go a long way toward keeping people from accomplishing that.

What was most curious though was that mortgage activity has been on the rise, and mortgages tied to home purchases rose to their peak in April, which is inconsistent with the Pending Home Sales report. But the Pending Home Sales Index is based on a small sample size, and so is more likely to produce an error than actual mortgage applications. Yun also talks about rising rents, and their impact on home ownership, but I think he’s reaching at that point.

The fact is that housing market growth from these low levels is no great feat. The bar is set low, and with the last synthetic barrier now behind us in data recording (2010 tax credit), housing should grow with ease. What stands as obstacle to housing growth is not the great shadow inventory or the still flush foreclosure flood, but the real threat to the vulnerable economy in its entirety. What we’ve seen this week in consumer confidence and manufacturing metrics worries me more than the factors that have taken home pricing to their deepest. Should gasoline pricing not revert, and energy, fuel, production and delivery costs weigh heavily for too long, then the long awaited turn in the real estate market might be pushed out; but worse than that, the economy would face recession again. But real estate growth cannot be pushed out too far, barring catastrophic event, given the depths it has fallen to, population growth, economic growth and American ambition.



Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Investors Title (Nasdaq: ITIC), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: SRS), Ultra Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: URE), ING Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund (NYSE: IGR), Xinyuan Real Estate Co. (NYSE: XIN), Rydex Real Estate Fund H (Nasdaq: RYHRX), T. Rowe Price Real Estate Fund (Nasdaq: TRREX), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH), Lennar (NYSE: LEN), K.B. Homes (NYSE: KBH), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR), Gafisa SA (NYSE: GFA), MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC), Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL), Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH), Brookfield Homes (NYSE: BHS), Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF), M/I Homes (NYSE: MHO), Orleans Homebuilders (AMEX: OHB), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSE: VNQ), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Williams Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Avatar Holdings (Nasdaq: AVTR), Apartment Investment & Management (NYSE: AIV), Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR), Avalonbay Communities (NYSE: AVB), UDR Inc. (NYSE: UDR), Essex Property Trust (NYSE: ESS), Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT), Senior Housing Properties (NYSE: SNH), BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE), Home Properties (NYSE: HME), Mid-America Apartment (NYSE: MAA), Equity Lifestyle Properties (NYSE: ELS), American Campus Communities (NYSE: ACC), Colonial Properties (NYSE: CLP), American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC), Sun Communities (NYSE: SUI), Associated Estates (NYSE: AEC), PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE: PMT), Two Harbors (AMEX: TWO), Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stock Market Drivers 06-01-11

Wednesday's stock market drivers were concentrated in more soft economic data, especially from the United States. ADP offered a very low forecast for Nonfarm Private Payroll growth for May. ISM produced a Manufacturing Index that illustrated a significant slowdown in segment expansion. Across China, India and the United Kingdom, economic reports echoed the U.S. message for a softening manufacturing sector. This report offers more data on the global economy and corporate wire as well.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative Tickers include NYSE: GM, NYSE: M, Nasdaq: GOOG, Nasdaq: AMSC, NYSE: MRO, NYSE: NBL, NYSE: SEE, Nasdaq: DELL, NYSE: MRK, NYSE: EMC, NYSE: AXP, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: MCD, Nasdaq: CSCO, NYSE: BAC, OTC: AXAHY.PK, NYSE: MWE, Nasdaq: TRGP, NYSE: CHD, Nasdaq: CWTR, NYSE: ESL, Nasdaq: JOSB, NYSE: NQ, Nasdaq: ADGE, Nasdaq: ATAI, Nasdaq: CEDU, Nasdaq: CPRT, Nasdaq: DAKT, NYSE: DG, NYSE: REX, Nasdaq: GAME, Nasdaq: VRA, NYSE: VIP, Nasdaq: WEST, AMEX: SGS, Nasdaq: MATR, Nasdaq: RADA, NYSE: RTSA, Nasdaq: FCVA, NYSE: KV-B, Nasdaq: TLVT, Nasdaq: OREX, Nasdaq: LZEN, AMEX: LEI, Nasdaq: SYMS, Nasdaq: HMNF, Nasdaq: SGRP, Nasdaq: LTRX, Nasdaq: HOLI, Nasdaq: AUTH, Nasdaq: KIPS, Nasdaq: SPU, Nasdaq: NAII, Nasdaq: ENMD, NYSE: NLS, Nasdaq: VRNG, Nasdaq: INOC, Nasdaq: GOLF, Nasdaq: PERF, Nasdaq: SQNS.

Stock Market Drivers

Debt Ceiling Politics
After soundly defeating a bill to raise the debt ceiling sans any tax cuts, House GOP members are off to the White House today to have a heart to heart with the President. Republicans are expected to demand trillions in spending cuts from the Obama Administration in exchange for consolation on the debt ceiling hike.

ADP Private Employment Data
ADP (NYSE: ADP) published its estimate today for a 38K private nonfarm payroll increase in May. It’s a miniscule increase, especially when compared to the still mediocre gain of 177K ADP saw for April. The Labor Department reports on total nonfarm payrolls and unemployment Friday. The DOL’s April report showed private nonfarm payrolls increased by 268K. This latest estimate is especially concerning, given recent economic red flags.

Challenger Announced Job-Cuts
Challenger Gray & Christmas’ tally of announced layoffs showed little change in May, with planned firings marking 37,135, up just slightly from the 36,490 declared in April. For the year-to-date, announced layoffs are down 21%.

US Manufacturing Lull
ISM reported its Manufacturing Index this morning, and it offered concerning data. The ISM’s Purchasing Managers Index fell 6.9 points to 53.5 in May. While a reading above 50 still signifies economic expansion, the deceleration of expansion is at this point clear and deep.

Global Manufacturing Lull
The U.K., China and India all reported slower manufacturing activity in May. The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index eased to 57.5, from 58 in April. Two separate surveys in China, one government tally and the other produced by HSBC (NYSE: HBC), both showed a moderation of manufacturing expansion. Both China and India are attributing a controlled deceleration to inflation fighting efforts the two nations’ central banks have been engaged in. The U.K.’s CIPS/Markit Purchasing Managers Index posted its fourth consecutive drop in overall activity, and its New Orders Index dropped below 50 in May, marking contraction.

Construction Spending
The Census Bureau reported construction spending increased 0.4% in April, against a March revision. April spending was still 9.3% short of the prior year period. This year’s activity is weighed by lower public construction spending, down 7.5% against the prior year and 1.9% short of March. Total private construction was up 1.7% in April, though still down 10.3% against the prior year period. Clearly new home construction is mired by the heavy inventory flood of distressed properties that remains in the market.

Mortgage Activity
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 4.0% decrease in its Market Composite Index for the week ending May 27. The Purchase Index was about unchanged while the Refinance Index fell 5.7%, despite a drop in fixed mortgage rates.

Greece Gets Lift on German Comments
Berlin corrected a newspaper report that previously stated the IMF might not be committed to any future aid package for Greece. German officials said the IMF and EU were committed to together provide additional funding to Greece. A team from the EU, IMF and European Central Bank (ECB) are in Athens now deciding whether to release a tranche of 12 billion euros to Greece next month. It seems clear Greece will continue to find support for now.

Timothy Geithner is testifying today before the House Financial Services Committee on the state of the international financial system.

The Bank of Japan kicks off its international conference on monetary policy.

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported a 2.8% year-over-year increase in same-store sales for the May 28 ending period. Redbook noted sales increased 3.6% for the same period.

Corporate Wire

GM (NYSE: GM) reported its May US sales slipped 3.5% against the prior year, where economists were looking for growth. GM predicted the total US industry annualized sales rate for May should range from 12 to 12.1 million. Reuters reports economists were looking for about 12.6 million. GM shares are down more than 2% on the news.

Macy’s (NYSE: M) reported its same-store sales rose 7.4% in May, meeting the company’s own aggressive expectations. However, the shares are down a half of a percent today on its failing to satisfy a greedy market.

American Superconductor (Nasdaq: AMSC) shares are down 20% at midday, after the company delayed its 10K on its review of revenue from customers in China. Before the day started, the shares had shed 63% of their value year-to-date. The company said it would be reversing recognition of a material amount of revenue over several quarters of data.

Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO) made a $3.5 billion acquisition of Texas located oil and natural gas fields. As of May 1 the fields were producing 7K barrels of oil equivalent per day, but Marathon expects to boost production to 80K per day by 2016.

Noble Energy (NYSE: NBL) reported an oil discovery in the deep water of the Gulf of Mexico. The project is the first to receive a permit since the disaster at the BP (NYSE: BP) rig. It’s kind of funny that NBL shares are down about 1.9% on the news. Perhaps the market would have preferred the project be a no go.

Sealed Air (NYSE: SEE) said it will buy Diversey Holdings for $4.3 billion. The deal takes SEE into commercial cleaning and sanitation businesses. SEE shares were down 3% on the news.

A New York court is holding a hearing today on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) settlement with publishers over digitizing books; the court had rejected the settlement.

Presenting at the Sanford C. Bernstein Strategic Decision Conference: Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), Merck (NYSE: MRK), EMC (NYSE: EMC), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD). Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO) is presenting at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch tech conference (NYSE: BAC). Meeting investors or analysts today, AXA SA ADR (OTC: AXAHY.PK), Mark-West Energy Partners (NYSE: MWE) and Targa Resources (Nasdaq: TRGP). Splitting today, Church & Dwight (NYSE: CHD).

The corporate earnings wire includes Coldwater Creek (Nasdaq: CWTR), Esterline Technologies (NYSE: ESL), Jos. A. Bank Clothiers (Nasdaq: JOSB), NetQin Mobile (NYSE: NQ), American DG Energy (Nasdaq: ADGE), ATA Inc. (Nasdaq: ATAI), ChinaEdu (Nasdaq: CEDU), Copart (Nasdaq: CPRT), Daktronics (Nasdaq: DAKT), Dollar General (NYSE: DG), REX American Resources (NYSE: REX), Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME), Vera Bradley Designs (Nasdaq: VRA) and Vimpelcom (NYSE: VIP).

The day’s most active stocks include – Gainers – Westinghouse Solar (Nasdaq: WEST), Stream Global Services (AMEX: SGS), eLoyalty (Nasdaq: MATR), Rada Electronics (Nasdaq: RADA), iPath Short Extended Russel 20 (NYSE: RTSA), First Capital Bancorp (Nasdaq: FCVA), KV Pharmaceutical (NYSE: KV-B), Telvent (Nasdaq: TLVT), Orexigen Therapeutics (Nasdaq: OREX), Lizhan Environmental (Nasdaq: LZEN), Lucas Energy (AMEX: LEI), Syms (Nasdaq: SYMS), HMN Financial (Nasdaq: HMNF), SPAR Group (Nasdaq: SGRP), Lantronix (Nasdaq: LTRX), Hollysys Automation (Nasdaq: HOLI), Authentec (Nasdaq: AUTH), Kips Bay Medical (Nasdaq: KIPS) – Losers – SkyPeople Fruit Juice (Nasdaq: SPU), Natural Alternatives (Nasdaq: NAII), EntreMed (Nasdaq: ENMD), Nautilus (NYSE: NLS), Vringo (Nasdaq: VRNG), Innotrac (Nasdaq: INOC), Golfsmith International (Nasdaq: GOLF), Perfumania (Nasdaq: PERF), Sequans Communication (Nasdaq: SQNS).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.