Rabu, 25 Januari 2012

Federal Reserve Stays Dovish as Europe Threatens

Federal Reserve buildingWhat follows is the verbatim copy of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Statement.

Release Date: January 25, 2012

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some further improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed, and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has been subdued in recent months, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth over coming quarters to be modest and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that over coming quarters, inflation will run at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to omit the description of the time period over which economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate.

Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), BB&T (NYSE: BBT), CIT (NYSE: CIT), Bank United (NYSE: BKU), First Citizens (OTC: FCNCA.PK), Synovus (NYSE: SNV), United Bankshares (Nasdaq: UBSI), Hampton Roads Bankshares (Nasdaq: HMPR), WesBanco (Nasdaq: WSBC), City Holding (Nasdaq: CHCO), Sandy Spring (Nasdaq: SASR), First Citizens (OTC: FCBN.OB), SCBT Financial (Nasdaq: SCBT), Wilmington Trust (NYSE: WL), WSFS Financial (Nasdaq: WSFS), Southside Bancshares (Nasdaq: SBSI), Stellar One (Nasdaq: STEL), Union First Market (Nasdaq: UBSH), Eagle Bancorp (Nasdaq: EGBN), First Bancorp (Nasdaq: FBNC), Ameris (Nasdaq: ABCB), The Bancorp (Nasdaq: TBBK), First Community (Nasdaq: FCBC), Capital City (Nasdaq: CCBG), Financial Institutions (Nasdaq: FISI), National Bankshares (Nasdaq: NKSH), Citizens & Northern (Nasdaq: CZNC), Charter Financial (Nasdaq: CHFN), Seacoast Banking (Nasdaq: SBCF), TIB Financial (Nasdaq: TIBB), American National (Nasdaq: AMNB), United Community (Nasdaq: UCBI), Middleburg Financial (Nasdaq: MBRG), Heritage Financial (Nasdaq: HBOS), Zions Bancorp (Nasdaq: ZION), East West Bancorp (Nasdaq: EWBC), City National (NYSE: CYN), Bank of Hawaii (NYSE: BOH), SVB Financial (Nasdaq: SIVB), Westamerica (Nasdaq: WABC), Cathay General (Nasdaq: CATY), Umpqua (Nasdaq: UMPQ), Glacier Bancorp (Nasdaq: GBCI), Pacific Capital (Nasdaq: PCBC), PacWest (Nasdaq: PACW), Western Alliance (NYSE: WAL), First National Alaska (OTC: FBAK.OB), First Interstate Bancsystem (Nasdaq: FIBK), Nara (Nasdaq: NARA), West Coast (Nasdaq: WCBO), TriCo (Nasdaq: TCBK), Territorial (Nasdaq: TBNK), Washington Banking (Nasdaq: WCBO), Bank of Marin (Nasdaq: BMRC), Hanmi (Nasdaq: HAFC), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), United Bankshares (Nasdaq: UBSI), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), MB Financial (Nasdaq: MBFI), Astoria Financial (NYSE: AF), New York Community (NYSE: NYB), Hudson City (Nasdaq: HCBK), People’s United (Nasdaq: PBCT), First Niagra (Nasdaq: FNFG), Capitol Federal (Nasdaq: CFFN), Washington Federal (Nasdaq: WFSL), Investor’s Bancorp (Nasdaq: ISBC), Northwest Bankshares (Nasdaq: NWBI), Sterling Financial (Nasdaq: STSA), Ocwen (NYSE: OCN), Flagstar (NYSE: FBC), Provident (NYSE: PFS), Colombia Banking (Nasdaq: COLB), Kearny (Nasdaq: KRNY), Brookline (Nasdaq: BRKL), Dime Community (Nasdaq: DCOM), Flushing Financial (Nasdaq: FFIC), Danvers (Nasdaq: DNBK).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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Noise Still Drowns Out Housing Data

economic data noise housing real estateOver the last month or so the weekly mortgage activity data produced by the Mortgage Bankers Association has been choppy to say the least. That is because of the imperfect adjustment for holidays, including Christmas, New Year’s and in this week’s data, Martin Luther King Day. However, moving forward, except for President’s Day on February 20, there should be very little noise in the data, barring wild swings in weather. Therefore, we should be able to get a clearer sense of the trend in housing, and as the weather warms, an early idea about the spring surge some real estate pundits expect.

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Relative tickers: NYSE: AF, NasdaqCM: ASBI, Nasdaq: ABCW, AMEX: BKJ, Nasdaq: BKMU, NYSE: BBX, Nasdaq: BFIN, Nasdaq: BANR, Nasdaq: BCSB, Nasdaq: BFED, Nasdaq: BHLB, Nasdaq: BOFI, Nasdaq: BYFC, Nasdaq: BRKL, Nasdaq: BFSB, Nasdaq: CAFI, Nasdaq: CFFN, Nasdaq: CARV, Nasdaq: CLFC, Nasdaq: CFBK, Nasdaq: CBNK, Nasdaq: CSBC, Nasdaq: CSBK, Nasdaq: COLB, Nasdaq: DCOM, Nasdaq: EBTC, Nasdaq: ESBF, Nasdaq: ESSA, Nasdaq: FFCO, Nasdaq: FFDF, Nasdaq: FBSI, Nasdaq: FCAP, Nasdaq: FCLF, Nasdaq: FDEF, Nasdaq: FFBH, Nasdaq: FFCH, Nasdaq: FNFG, Nasdaq: FSGID, Nasdaq: FSBK, NYSE: FBC, Nasdaq: FFIC, Nasdaq: GCBC, Nasdaq: HFFC, Nasdaq: HMNF, Nasdaq: HBCP, Nasdaq: HOME, Nasdaq: HFBC, Nasdaq: HCBK, Nasdaq: INCB, Nasdaq: ISBC, Nasdaq: JXSB, Nasdaq: JFBI, Nasdaq: KFFG, Nasdaq: KRNY, Nasdaq: KFFB, Nasdaq: LSBK, Nasdaq: LABC, Nasdaq: LSBI, Nasdaq: MLVF, Nasdaq: EBSB, Nasdaq: CASH, Nasdaq: NASB, Nasdaq: NVSL, Nasdaq: NEBS, Nasdaq: NHTB, NYSE: NYB, Nasdaq: FFFD, Nasdaq: NECB, Nasdaq: NWBI, Nasdaq: OCFC, NYSE: OCN, Nasdaq: ONFC, Nasdaq: PFED, Nasdaq: PVSA, Nasdaq: PBHC, Nasdaq: PBCT, Nasdaq: PCBS, Nasdaq: PROV, NYSE: PFS, Nasdaq: PBNY, Nasdaq: PBIP, Nasdaq: PSBH, Nasdaq: PULB, Nasdaq: PVFC, Nasdaq: QCCO, Nasdaq: RIVR, Nasdaq: RVSB, Nasdaq: ROMA, AMEX: SAL, Nasdaq: SIFI, Nasdaq: SMBC, Nasdaq: STSA, AMEX: TSH, Nasdaq: THRD, Nasdaq: TSBK, Nasdaq: UCBA, Nasdaq: UCFC, Nasdaq: UBNK, Nasdaq: VYFC, Nasdaq: WFSL, Nasdaq: WSBF, Nasdaq: WAYN, Nasdaq: WSB and Nasdaq: WVFC.

Noise Drowned Housing & Economic Data



This week’s Weekly Application Survey, covering the week ending January 20, included the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. It was a bank holiday, and so comes to play in mortgage activity. For the week, the MBA’s Market Composite Index fell by 5% from the week before, handicapped by what we see as inadequate adjustment for the business drop-off that occurs on the Friday before and the Tuesday that follows every three day weekend. I’ve originated this viewpoint and continue to put it forth here.

Purchase Activity, which measures mortgage application activity tied to the purchase of homes, fell by 5.4% from the week just prior. I again attribute this decline to the holiday impact, despite the adjustment by the MBA. On an unadjusted basis, this index fell by 9.7%. However, we still cannot use this data in pure form in our forecasting or investment assumptions, for the reasons aforementioned.

The Refinance Index fell by 5.2%, again on the holiday noise. Mortgage rate direction varied across mortgage categories. For instance, the average contracted rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages with conforming loan balances (417,500 or less) increased to 4.11% from 4.06% the week before. While the points decreased for 80% loan to value ratios, the effective mortgage rate still rose. As for jumbo loan balances (greater than conforming), the average contracted rate for same term fixed rate mortgages fell slightly to 4.39%, from 4.4%. While points rose here, the effective rate still decreased. FHA sponsored loans saw the average contracted rate on 30-year fixed rate loans rise to 3.97% from 3.91% the week before. Average contracted rates on 15-year fixed rate mortgages rose to 3.4% from 3.33%.

Even the four-week moving average of the Market Composite Index seems to me seasonally skewed as it moves out of the holiday inclusive period. For the latest period, this average was up 4.12%, and it should continue higher as it leaves the holiday season behind.

As we move forward, the weekly data faces little distraction, except for what may come from weather and also President’s Day in February. Thus, those of us studying this data point, and others, will get a clearer view to which to base more solid forecasts upon. That said, this benefit will not account for what may lie ahead of us, which I’ve begun talking about in recent columns. In fact, in my latest article, I based a sell call on paper profit rich homebuilders on this view. Today’s mortgage activity data, along with the Pending Home Sales Index decline and FHFA House Price Index’s monthly price increase have the relative shares of Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and K.B. Home (NYSE: KBH) trading mixed at this hour. K.B. Home was up 2.9% near noontime, while J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo were lower by about 1%.

Article should interest investors in Savings & Loan stocks including Alaska Pacific Bankshares (OTC: AKPB.OB), Allied First Bancorp (OTC: AFBA.OB), Astoria Financial (NYSE: AF), AMB Financial (OTC: AMFC.OB), Ameriana Bancorp (NasdaqCM: ASBI), Anchor Bancorp Wisconsin (Nasdaq: ABCW), Bancorp of New Jersey (AMEX: BKJ), Bank Mutual (Nasdaq: BKMU), BankAtlantic (NYSE: BBX), BankFinancial (Nasdaq: BFIN), Banner (Nasdaq: BANR), BCSB Bancorp (Nasdaq: BCSB), Beacon Federal (Nasdaq: BFED), Berkshire Hills (Nasdaq: BHLB), Blackhawk Bancorp (OTC: BHWB.OB), Blue River Bancshares (OTC: BRBI.OB), Bofi (Nasdaq: BOFI), Broadway Financial (Nasdaq: BYFC), Brookline (Nasdaq: BRKL), Brooklyn Federal (Nasdaq: BFSB), Camco Financial (Nasdaq: CAFI), Capitol Federal (Nasdaq: CFFN), Carver (Nasdaq: CARV), Cecil Bancorp (OTC: CECB.OB), Center Financial (Nasdaq: CLFC), Central Federal (Nasdaq: CFBK), Chicopee (Nasdaq: CBNK), Citizens South (Nasdaq: CSBC), CKF Bancorp (OTC: CKFB.OB), Clarkston Financial (OTC: CKFC.OB), Clifton Savings (Nasdaq: CSBK), Close Brothers (OTC: CBGPY.PK), Columbia Banking (Nasdaq: COLB), Consumers (OTC: CBKM.OB), Dime Community (Nasdaq: DCOM), Enterprise (Nasdaq: EBTC), ESB Financial (Nasdaq: ESBF), ESSA Bancorp (Nasdaq: ESSA), Eureka Financial (OTC: EKFC.OB), FedFirst Fin’l (Nasdaq: FFCO), FFD Fin’l (Nasdaq: FFDF), FFW (OTC: FFWC.OB), First Bancorp of Indiana (OTC: FBPI.OB), First Bancshares (Nasdaq: FBSI), First Capital (Nasdaq: FCAP), First Clover Leaf (Nasdaq: FCLF), First Defiance (Nasdaq: FDEF), First Federal Bancshares of Arkansas (Nasdaq: FFBH), First Financial Holdings (Nasdaq: FFCH), First Independence (OTC: FFSL.OB), First Investors Fin’l Services (OTC: FIFS.PK), First Niagara (Nasdaq: FNFG), First Robinson (OTC: FRFC.OB), First Security Group (Nasdaq: FSGID), First South (Nasdaq: FSBK), Flagstar (NYSE: FBC), Flatbush Federal (OTC: FLTB.OB), Flushing Financial (Nasdaq: FFIC), Greene County (Nasdaq: GCBC), HF Financial (Nasdaq: HFFC), HMN Fin’l (Nasdaq: HMNF), Home Bancorp (Nasdaq: HBCP), Home Federal (Nasdaq: HOME), HopFed (Nasdaq: HFBC), Hudson City (Nasdaq: HCBK), Indiana Community (Nasdaq: INCB), Investors Bancorp (Nasdaq: ISBC), Jacksonville Bancorp (Nasdaq: JXSB), Jefferson Bancshares (Nasdaq: JFBI), Kaiser Federal (Nasdaq: KFFG), Kearny Fin’l (Nasdaq: KRNY), Kentucky First Federal (Nasdaq: KFFB), Lake Shore Bancorp (Nasdaq: LSBK), Louisiana Bancorp (Nasdaq: LABC), LSB Fin’l (Nasdaq: LSBI), Malvern Federal (Nasdaq: MLVF), Meridian Interstate (Nasdaq: EBSB), Meta Fin’l (Nasdaq: CASH), NASB Fin’l (Nasdaq: NASB), Naugatuck Valley (Nasdaq: NVSL), New England Bancshares (Nasdaq: NEBS), New Hampshire Thrift (Nasdaq: NHTB), New York Community (NYSE: NYB), North Central Bancshares (Nasdaq: FFFD), Northeast Community (Nasdaq: NECB), Northwest Bancshares (Nasdaq: NWBI), OceanFirst (Nasdaq: OCFC), Ocwen (NYSE: OCN), Oneida (Nasdaq: ONFC), Park Bancorp (Nasdaq: PFED), Parkvale Fin’l (Nasdaq: PVSA), Pathfinder Bancorp (Nasdaq: PBHC), People’s United (Nasdaq: PBCT), Provident Community (Nasdaq: PCBS), Provident Fin’l (Nasdaq: PROV), Provident Fin’l Services (NYSE: PFS), Provident New York (Nasdaq: PBNY), Prudential Bancorp of PA (Nasdaq: PBIP), PSB Holding (Nasdaq: PSBH), Pulaski Fin’l (Nasdaq: PULB), PVF Capital (Nasdaq: PVFC), QC Holding (Nasdaq: QCCO), River Valley Bancorp (Nasdaq: RIVR), Riverview Bancorp (Nasdaq: RVSB), Roma Fin’l (Nasdaq: ROMA), Salisbury Bancorp (AMEX: SAL), SI Financial (Nasdaq: SIFI), Southern Missouri (Nasdaq: SMBC), Sterling Fin’l (Nasdaq: STSA), Teche Holding (AMEX: TSH), TF Fin’l (Nasdaq: THRD), Timberland Bancorp (Nasdaq: TSBK), United Community (Nasdaq: UCBA), United Community Fin’l (Nasdaq: UCFC), United Fin’l Bancorp (Nasdaq: UBNK), Valley Fin’l (Nasdaq: VYFC), Washington Federal (Nasdaq: WFSL), Waterstone Fin’l (Nasdaq: WSBF), Wayne Savings (Nasdaq: WAYN), WSB Holdings (Nasdaq: WSB) and WVS Financial (Nasdaq: WVFC).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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San Francisco 49ers Heart Breaking Defeat


The loss to New York Giants was heart breaking and it was not one person’s fault it was a team effort. Just because Kyle Williams touched the ball on a punt giving the Giants the ball down by the Giants 20 yard line causing a Giants touch down. The dropped ball in the end zone from a pass from Alex Smith for the San Francisco 49ers win in overtime. How many chances were San Francisco 49ers supposed to get, they could not capitalize on 3rd down. Just think if they did. The score probably would have been higher with San Francisco coming out the victors. All you stupid idiots who are twitting death threats to Kyle Smith it Stop it!!. All you San Francisco 49ers fans hold your heads up, your team had a great season.
LM

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