Facebook IPO Windfall if Open to its Users

Imagine how awesome it would it be for Facebook (NYSE: FB) to offer its shares via a social IPO™. With some 800 million users of its now iconic social networking platform, the new king of the internet might score yet more points with its “friends” if it were to offer them access to the company’s IPO. Beyond being just a brilliant public relations maneuver, such access to the new shares should allow the company to achieve an even better valuation than it might otherwise.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

For Facebook a Social IPO Would Rock

Just do the math. With 800 million active users, if it were to offer its shares at $100 per, Facebook could generate $80 billion if each of its members bought just one share. Valuation aside, the unsophisticated marketplace would likely bid up Facebook’s value beyond the $100 billion valuation some sophisticated investors say Facebook is worth. And given that there would likely remain strong demand among many institutions, Facebook might then achieve an even greater than $100 billion valuation.

Furthermore, the news of a social IPO would likely push more people globally to join the social network, giving lift to the company’s intrinsic value. Thus, like a Newton’s Cradle, the metal balls that rock each other in perpetual motion on executive desks across the country, Facebook’s members would drive its share value as its share offering drives membership growth. I think that’s just brilliant.

As is, the Facebook IPO is the most heralded and anticipated since Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) blockbuster offering about a decade ago. The offering’s proceeds and valuation should exceed Google’s and other major internet IPOs like that of Zynga (Nasdaq: ZNGA), Groupon (Nasdaq: GRPN), Vonage (NYSE: VG), Orbitz Worldwide (NYSE: OWW) and LinkedIn (Nasdaq: LNKD). Just the news of Facebook’s registration sent the shares of stocks that might benefit from Facebook’s valuation soaring. Renren (Nasdaq: RENN) and Zynga (Nasdaq: ZNGA) took off like rockets late last week.

I only wonder if the bankers at Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), the investment bank said to be heading up Facebook’s offering, have considered this novel idea. If not, just a tiny cut from the commission would do me just fine fellas.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

magicJack Vocal Tec (Nasdaq: CALL) - The Magic is Back

Shares of magicJack Vocal Tec (Nasdaq: CALL) were among the market’s leading gainers last Friday, on news of strong fourth quarter sales of the company’s latest Internet telephony device. The shares also got extra lift from a second simultaneous announcement, as the company canceled a dilutive share offering. The unexpected sales provided the needed operating capital in the offering’s stead. Shares of CALL were up 18% on the day, placing the company among the market’s leading gainers.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative Tickers: Nasdaq: ALSK, NYSE: T, Nasdaq: ATNI, NYSE: BCE, NYSE: CTL, NYSE: CHT, NYSE: CBB, Nasdaq: CNSL, Nasdaq: EONC, Nasdaq: EQIX, Nasdaq: FRP, Nasdaq: FTR, Nasdaq: HTCO, OTC: IAGI.PK, Nasdaq: CALL, Nasdaq: SHEN, Nasdaq: SURW, Nasdaq: TWTC, Nasdaq: UNTK, NYSE: VZ, NYSE: VG, Nasdaq: WWVY, Nasdaq: WIN, Nasdaq: AMCX, Nasdaq: ASCMA, NYSE: CVC, Nasdaq: CHTR, Nasdaq: CMCSA, Nasdaq: CRWN, Nasdaq: DTV, Nasdaq: DISCA, Nasdaq: DISH, Nasdaq: LBTYA, Nasdaq: LNET, NYSE: SJR, Nasdaq: TIVO, Nasdaq: VMED.

See my review of the old magicJack

The Magic is Back

It appears the magic may in fact be back for magicJack (Nasdaq: CALL). The company announced Friday that its latest product, the magicJack Plus, is basically selling like hotcakes (whatever that means), with approximately 365K units sold in the last 30 days. The original magicJack device needed to be plugged into a computer connected to the internet to make use of it, but the magicJack Plus connects directly into the internet line. Thus, you do not have to keep your computer on 24/7 to make or receive phone calls. It’s a major upgrade in technology and utility value, and the price is likewise higher, retailing at $69.95, versus the $39.95 price for the original magicJack.

Because of the strong sales, the company expects to have a cash store of approximately $50 million by next month. Thus, it was able to kill its planned share offering. Not only did it do so, but the company will renew its share repurchase program as well. It’s an interesting shift in capital management that I find telling about the management team’s forecasting prowess. That means that both upside and downside surprises are highly possible in the future as well. Such unreliability and uncertainty likely burdens the company’s valuation a bit.

Internet telephony has been an interesting market to follow. We saw Vonage (NYSE: VG) dive after its high profile IPO in the middle of the last decade. However, Vonage’s product price point probably was not or is not far enough off the major telecoms to stick, in my view. VG shares still rose in sympathy with CALL Friday, up 7.3%, to $2.36. Likewise, Skype, now owned by Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), did well enough but never caught on with the broad populace. Perhaps it was just too early or maybe the tech savvy needed to use it was too much for an older demographic of American citizens. It’s clear, though, that with the evolution of technology usage, Internet telephony will be an easy learn. Meanwhile, magicJack just made it easy enough for even non-tech savvy seniors to use.

Eventually, the Verizon’s (NYSE: VZ), AT&T’s (NYSE: T) and Sprint Nextel’s (NYSE: S) of the world will feel threatened by internet telephony and magicJack, if they aren’t already. I’ve noted that the price difference between Verizon’s independent internet service and internet and telephone service bundle is marginal, leaving me to question whether “the jack” would really offer worthwhile savings given the convenience trade-off of the first model. I suspect Verizon and other internet providers have priced this way for this very reason. You can get cheaper internet service from the big boys of the industry, but you get less bandwidth in return. Now this second product model by magicJack presents a different story, and given that the ability to port your old number has finally arrived, the game may be on.

The important question to ask is what strategy will the telecom giants employ to crush this emerging competition. Well, the big box players are well positioned to do so, given that they control the internet. However, I could see the cable providers, who are also providers of bandwidth, like Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC), Cablevision (NYSE: CVC) and Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA) having interest in acquiring a magicJack in order to provide a more competitive bundle package against the telecom players’ offerings. Thus, the new magicJack might be more than just a nifty product for a thrifty spender. Its shares and those of similar servicers might find broad appeal one way or another. Given that a recent census poll showed about half of America is poor, and given the number appears to be increasing, even the worst case scenario seems to present an expanding market opportunity.

There’s just one analyst following the company, based on Yahoo Finance data. His EPS estimate for 2012 appears to be $1.83, which puts its P/E ratio at 13.1X as of Friday. While EPS growth looks to approximate 71% in 2012, the long-term growth estimate is 17.5%, again based on Yahoo Finance and its data providers. Based on this thumbnail, the stock would appear undervalued. The question is, can Internet telephony, and more importantly, the MagicJack, really replace standard telephone service? It once seemed unlikely, but there certainly is a market of bargain seekers willing to try it out, and that market is expanding as economic difficulties continue. Meanwhile, the technology just got easier to operate.

I suspect there is untapped value in recurring revenue not currently being maximized. Today, you buy the magicJack and have telephone service all year long, and then are asked to pay the same amount the following year to continue using the service (though the company stretches that revenue across the year). I suspect that an acquirer would create value by raising the monthly charge tied to magicJack usage through the year. So, while lowering the revenue received currently through telephone service provision, they could also add value to the acquired service and position more competitively against the big three telecom providers. I see this as a clear opportunity for the cable industry, but bad news for the savvy consumer now benefiting from his "jack".

The stock’s chart seemed to show market disinterest until volume picked up in 2010. The cure for questions is earnings growth, and earnings visibility is a new development here. As earnings grow now, and with a P/E near single digits, there would be little stopping the share price following earnings per share higher. The company managed to sell 8 million of its original magicJacks® into a market of roughly 100 million households. This newest product is far superior and the economics more attractive. Its appeal can reach a broader span of Americans, in my view. So, I am a short to medium term fan of magicJack shares (Nasdaq: CALL) and recommend them for aggressive, emerging growth and micro to small cap portfolios.

Editor’s Note: This article should interest investors in Alaska Communications Systems Group (Nasdaq: ALSK), AT&T (NYSE: T), Atlantic Tele-Network (Nasdaq: ATNI), BCE Inc. (NYSE: BCE), CenturyLink (NYSE: CTL), Chunghwa Telecom (NYSE: CHT), Cincinnati Bell (NYSE: CBB), Consolidated Communications (Nasdaq: CNSL), eOn Communications (Nasdaq: EONC), Equinix (Nasdaq: EQIX), FairPoint Communications (Nasdaq: FRP), Frontier Communications (Nasdaq: FTR), Hickory Tech (Nasdaq: HTCO), IA Global (OTC: IAGI.PK), magicJack VocalTec (Nasdaq: CALL), Shenandoah Telecommunications (Nasdaq: SHEN), SureWest Communications (Nasdaq: SURW), tw telecom (Nasdaq: TWTC), UniTek Global Services (Nasdaq: UNTK), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Vonage (NYSE: VG), Warwick Valley Telephone (Nasdaq: WWVY), Windstream Corp. (Nasdaq: WIN), AMC Networks (Nasdaq: AMCX), Ascent Media (Nasdaq: ASCMA), Cablevision (NYSE: CVC), Charter Communications (Nasdaq: CHTR), Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA), Crown Media (Nasdaq: CRWN), DIRECTV (Nasdaq: DTV), Discovery Communications (Nasdaq: DISCA), DISH Network (Nasdaq: DISH), Liberty Global (Nasdaq: LBTYA), LodgeNet Interactive (Nasdaq: LNET), Shaw Communications (NYSE: SJR), TiVo (Nasdaq: TIVO) and Virgin Media (Nasdaq: VMED).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Every Dog has its Day - Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO)

Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) shares shot up and closed 16% higher Thursday, after the company posted results Wednesday afternoon. Simply put, the long-suffering Cisco beat the beaten down Street estimate, and offered some hope that the company’s simplification plan might create significant economic value in the quarters ahead, and market value by natural progression. The company, which was the poorest pooch of the Dow dog pack, looks to have better days ahead of it now.



Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.



Relative tickers: Nasdaq: CSCO, Nasdaq: JNPR, Nasdaq: RVBD, Nasdaq: ARUN, Nasdaq: FNSR, Nasdaq: SMCI, Nasdaq: BBOX, Nasdaq: DGII, Nasdaq: ELON, Nasdaq: EXTR, Nasdaq: GCOM, OTC: HUTC.OB, Nasdaq: LTRX, OTC: LTTC.OB, Nasdaq: NWK, Nasdaq: PTIX, Nasdaq: SWIR, Nasdaq: SILC, Nasdaq: SCMR, Nasdaq: VPF, OTC: ZWBC.PK, OTC: WGAT.PK, NYSE: AIQ, Nasdaq: AONE, Nasdaq: IDSA, Nasdaq: INSM, NYSE: KV-A, Nasdaq: MFNC, Nasdaq: HGSH, AMEX: BHO, NYSE: TLB, Nasdaq: CARB, Nasdaq: TTHI, Nasdaq: AMPE, Nasdaq: CECE, NYSE: IL, NYSE: SOL, Nasdaq: AFFM, Nasdaq: USCR, Nasdaq: TPCG, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: VHI, AMEX: IDI, Nasdaq: CXPO, Nasdaq: EDAC, Nasdaq: IPHI, Nasdaq: TCHC, Nasdaq: ADES, OTC: ALBCF.PK, NYSE: BUD, Nasdaq: BONE, NYSE: BYI, Nasdaq: BIOF, Nasdaq: BODY, Nasdaq: EPAY, NYSE: BGG, NYSE: EAT, NYSE: BR, Nasdaq: CECE, Nasdaq: CHNR, Nasdaq: CPHI, Nasdaq: CIDM, Nasdaq: CDTI, Nasdaq: COSI, NYSE: DV, Nasdaq: DGLY, Nasdaq: ESTE, Nasdaq: DIET, Nasdaq: RDEN, Nasdaq: ELTK, Nasdaq: EMAN, Nasdaq: GENC, Nasdaq: GCFB, Nasdaq: HOKU, Nasdaq: JSDA, NYSE: KSS, NYSE: MCP, NYSE: JWN, Nasdaq: NVDA, NYSE: PGR, Nasdaq: QPSA, Nasdaq: RRGB, Nasdaq: RENN, Nasdaq: SPNS, NYSE: SLE, NYSE: TK, NYSE: THI, Nasdaq: URRE and NYSE: WEN.

Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO) – Every Dog has its Day

Cisco’s revenues rose 3%, to $11.2 billion, which was about $300 million higher than the revenue estimates of analysts on average, based on Factset data. Last month, the company said it would let 6,500 people go, and it has begun shedding non-core business efforts like its Flip Video camcorder. Excluding the cost of these measures, Cisco said it would have earned $0.40 a share last quarter, which was 2 cents above the Street view. Cisco even said it might generate 4% revenue growth in the current quarter, also above the Street outlook.



There was but one negative point and warning from John Chambers, the company’s embattled CEO, and that is that government sourced revenue streams are threatened. Indeed, its public sector sales dropped 7%, and unfortunately, this segment represents about a fifth of the company’s business.



Cisco Systems was the dog of the Dow, down 32% before Thursday for the year-to-date. That measured against the Dow’s 7% drop-off. Every dog has his day, though, and today is Cisco’s. It looks like its economic value creating strategy will serve as an offset against the impact of broader economic weakness. Thus, CSCO’s return outlook has some alpha in it to overcome the beta beat-down from the broader economy and market.



This stock epitomizes the appeal of value in a growth troubled environment. It should attract capital as a result, like it clearly has today. The company’s PEG ratio, before the day’s move, was sub-1.0 (about 1.2X now), and growth looks like it has the potential to surprise as the company sheds burdensome business lines, cuts costs and spurs the top line. The PEG ratio we quoted here is based on about a 10% growth forecast over the next five years (Yahoo Finance), but Cisco produced 21% operating EPS growth in this latest quarter, based on the $0.40 figure. As a result, I cannot help but like it as a sector representative for well diversified portfolios.



This article should interest investors in networking and computer device companies, including Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Juniper Networks (Nasdaq: JNPR), Riverbed Technology (Nasdaq: RVBD), Aruba Networks (Nasdaq: ARUN), Finisar (Nasdaq: FNSR), Super Micro Computer (Nasdaq: SMCI), Black Box (Nasdaq: BBOX), Digi International (Nasdaq: DGII), Echelon (Nasdaq: ELON), Extreme Networks (Nasdaq: EXTR), Globecomm (Nasdaq: GCOM), Hughes Telematics (OTC: HUTC.OB), Lantronix (Nasdaq: LTRX), Lattice (OTC: LTTC.OB), Network Equipment Technology (Nasdaq: NWK), Performance Technologies (Nasdaq: PTIX), Sierra Wireless (Nasdaq: SWIR), Silicom (Nasdaq: SILC), Sycamore Networks (Nasdaq: SCMR), Valpey-Fisher (Nasdaq: VPF), WideBand (OTC: ZWBC.PK), WorldGate Communications (OTC: WGAT.PK).



Other big gainers Thursday included Alliance Healthcare (NYSE: AIQ), A123 Systems (Nasdaq: AONE), Industrial Services of America (Nasdaq: IDSA), Insmed (Nasdaq: INSM), K-V Pharmaceutical (NYSE: KV-A), Mackinac Financial (Nasdaq: MFNC), China HGS Real Estate (Nasdaq: HGSH), B+H Ocean Carriers (AMEX: BHO), Talbots (NYSE: TLB), Carbonite (Nasdaq: CARB), Transition Therapeutics (Nasdaq: TTHI), Ampio Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: AMPE), CECO Environmental (Nasdaq: CECE), IntraLinks (NYSE: IL), Renesola (NYSE: SOL), Affirmative Insurance (Nasdaq: AFFM), U.S. Concrete (Nasdaq: USCR), TPC Group (Nasdaq: TPCG), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Valhi (NYSE: VHI), SearchMedia Holdings (AMEX: IDI), Crimson Exploration (Nasdaq: CXPO), EDAC Technologies (Nasdaq: EDAC), Inphi Corp. (Nasdaq: IPHI).



The rest of the EPS schedule includes: 21st Century Holding (Nasdaq: TCHC), ADA-ES (Nasdaq: ADES), Alibaba.com (OTC: ALBCF.PK), Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD), Bacterin Int’l (Nasdaq: BONE), Bally Technologies (NYSE: BYI), Biofuel Energy (Nasdaq: BIOF), Body Central (Nasdaq: BODY), Bottomline Technologies (Nasdaq: EPAY), Briggs & Stratton (NYSE: BGG), Brinker Int’l (NYSE: EAT), Broadridge Financial (NYSE: BR), Ceco (Nasdaq: CECE), China Natural Resources (Nasdaq: CHNR), China Pharma (Nasdaq: CPHI), Cinedigm Digital (Nasdaq: CIDM), Clean Diesel Technologies (Nasdaq: CDTI), Cosi (Nasdaq: COSI), DeVry (NYSE: DV), Digital Ally (Nasdaq: DGLY), Earthstone Energy (Nasdaq: ESTE), eDiets.com (Nasdaq: DIET), Elizabeth Arden (Nasdaq: RDEN), Eltek (Nasdaq: ELTK), Emagin (Nasdaq: EMAN), Gencor (Nasdaq: GENC), Granite City Food (Nasdaq: GCFB), Hoku (Nasdaq: HOKU), Jones Soda (Nasdaq: JSDA), Kohl’s (NYSE: KSS), Molycorp (NYSE: MCP), Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN), Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA), Progressive (NYSE: PGR), Quepasa (Nasdaq: QPSA), Red Robin Gourmet (Nasdaq: RRGB), Renren (Nasdaq: RENN), Sapien’s (Nasdaq: SPNS), Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE), Teekay (NYSE: TK), Tim Horton’s (NYSE: THI), Uranium Resources (Nasdaq: URRE), Wendy’s (NYSE: WEN), and more.



Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

LiveDeal (Nasdaq: LIVE) – Discerning What May Have Driven its 58% Gain

LiveDeal (Nasdaq: LIVE) might be mitigating its delisting issue, or the day's 58% gain may be without solid basis. We explore several possibilities herein, and expect you'll find value in our perspective. LiveDeal (Nasdaq: LIVE) led most shares Wednesday on no corporate news and little sign of reason. Even the message boards were empty of speculation. Thus, the mysterious movement only drew in more capital and perpetuated momentum of the lightly traded microcap stock with few shares outstanding and fewer floating.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

LiveDeal (Nasdaq: LIVE) – Discerning What May Have Driven its 58% Gain

Relative Tickers: Nasdaq: GOOG, Nasdaq: BIDU, Nasdaq: YNDX, Nasdaq: LNKD, Nasdaq: AKAM, Nasdaq: ACOM, NYSE: AOL, Nasdaq: ATRN, Nasdaq: ABTL, AMEX: BNX, Nasdaq: BITA, Nasdaq: JRJC, Nasdaq: CCIH, OTC: CLKZ.PK, Nasdaq: EDGR, Nasdaq: DIETD, Nasdaq: GSOL, Nasdaq: HSTM, Nasdaq: HSWI, Nasdaq: INSP, Nasdaq: INXN, Nasdaq: DATE, OTC: KBAS.PK, Nasdaq: LOCM, Nasdaq: LOOK, Nasdaq: LEDR, OTC: MMRF.OB, OTC: PCIR.PK, OTC: QPSA.PK, Nasdaq: REDF, Nasdaq: RENN, OTC: SLNM.PK, Nasdaq: SOHU, Nasdaq: SFUN, Nasdaq: SBAY, Nasdaq: TTGT, Nasdaq: KNOT, NYSE: TST, Nasdaq: TZOO, AMEX: TCX, Nasdaq: VTRO, Nasdaq: WWWW, Nasdaq: WBMD, Nasdaq: YHOO, Nasdaq: YOKU, OTC: ZAOFF.PK, Nasdaq: LIVE, Nasdaq: NGSX, Nasdaq: SCEI, Nasdaq: WFSLW, Nasdaq: NFEC, NYSEArca: TVIX, AMEX: XPO, AMEX: ESA, NYSEArca: CVOL, NYSE: DST, NYSEArca: VZZ, Nasdaq: OVRL, Nasdaq: DHRM, Nasdaq: HOLI, AMEX: ELC, Nasdaq: CMED, Nasdaq: SMRT, Nasdaq: CDTI, Nasdaq: EPOC, Nasdaq: RGDX, Nasdaq: SPMD and Nasdaq: PFED.

The stock closed up 58%, taking it to a technical level it had previously found comfort in. At $4.34 though, the shares still traded well short of their 52-week high of $22.25. Given the stock’s float of just 470K, based on Yahoo Finance data (Nasdaq: YHOO), it wouldn’t take much to move it like it did Wednesday. Institutional holders UBS (NYSE: UBS) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) recently (March 31, 2011) reported small stakes, though Thomson Financial data at Yahoo seems to show net sales on the institutional level in the quarter before last.

The latest news we could find on the wire was of LIVE’s delisting notification for violating a NASDAQ exchange rule regarding minimum shareholders equity, and so on May 24, 2011 it was given 45 days to show NASDAQ (Nasdaq: NDAQ) how it planned to achieve and sustain compliance. Therefore, perhaps the day’s movement can be explained to be relative to LiveDeal’s near-term ability to meet the NASDAQ’s listing rules. I say this because the shares began downward from $4 on the delisting release on May 24, and have restored the market value lost since that news broke in one day’s trading on Wednesday.

Thus, it would appear that someone is betting on the possibility of this company mitigating its delisting issue. The stock’s activity seems to reflect that driver if we are discerning clearly. My study of the company’s website turned up a bit of a confusing (to me) headline above the newest company press release on its press releases page (which I have saved and notified the company of), which read, “LiveDeal Secures Additional Commitments from Foreign Equity Investors.” There was no date on the press release teaser, leaving me unsure as to whether it was published today. Thus it was confusing to me. I suppose that if you only read that headline, something a prudent investor should never do, you may have misunderstood the page. However, if you clicked through the release underneath that headline, which offered a lead-in that discussed the appointment of the new CEO (onus on the reader to notice), you found a news item detailing the appointment of the new CEO, which is old news. There was no information about a new foreign investment in the release text or leader. Only the headline was confusing if taken in isolation, which any investor should never do! However, I wonder if any did.

I called in to LiveDeal and spoke with the Investor Relations contact, CFO Lawrence Tomsic, and he said the company had not issued any press release Wednesday nor announced any news of new foreign equity investors since the March 25 release last indicating so. He said the company had no comment with regard to the day’s stock movement, and knew of no specific timely reason for the stock’s activity Wednesday.

Because of the possibility of a gunslinging investor potentially acting on incomplete due diligence, the driver of the 58% move in the stock could be without any base, though I cannot be sure; it could also be an independent bet on the company avoiding delisting; or it could be on another issue or theory or other reason. Whatever the case, I perceive risk in holding the shares now after the big gain, while not knowing certainly the true driver and with those possibilities seemingly in the cards.

If the stock is up on a presumed ability to avoid delisting, without any other important news, it would seem the shares would find balance at around $4, where about it traded steadily before the delisting warning. If the stock appreciation was driven by faulty reasoning, then the stock could move back toward where it stood before Wednesday, in my estimation, which was $2.75. In after-hours trading Wednesday, speculators have taken the shares to near $5 (seen on Yahoo Finance), which based on our reasoning here, looks lofty in my view (above $4) if not completely without base given the risks outlined above.

Note: Risk of missing upside also exists if the catalyst for the day's rise is something other than NASDAQ listing violation mitigation but still construed as positive by the market, or if that catalyst exists simultaneously with another, or for many other reasons.

We will continue to explain vaguely understood stock movements as best we can for our readers, so join our mailing list or revisit us regularly. We welcome your requests. Simply submit your stock questions to us via comments to any of our articles or to a button we will establish shortly atop the blog. If the stock is especially active that particular day, or if it is of broad interest otherwise, we will dedicate a post toward answering your question.

Disclosure: The author has no direct or beneficial interest in the shares of or securities relative to LiveDeal (Nasdaq: LIVE) or any other stock mentioned in this article.

The day’s top gainers included LiveDeal (Nasdaq: LIVE), NeurogesX (Nasdaq: NGSX), Sino Clean Energy (Nasdaq: SCEI), Washington Federal (Nasdaq: WFSLW), NF Energy Saving (Nasdaq: NFEC), VelocityShares Daily 2X (NYSEArca: TVIX), Express-1 Expedited Solutions (AMEX: XPO), Energy Services of America (AMEX: ESA), C Tracks Exchange Traded Notes (NYSEArca: CVOL), DST Systems (NYSE: DST), iPath Long Enhanced S&P 500 VIX (NYSEArca: VZZ), Overland Storage (Nasdaq: OVRL), Dehaier Medical Systems (Nasdaq: DHRM), Hollysys Automation (Nasdaq: HOLI), Eastern Light Capital (AMEX: ELC), China Medical (Nasdaq: CMED), Stein Mart (Nasdaq: SMRT), Clean Diesel Technologies (Nasdaq: CDTI), Epocrates (Nasdaq: EPOC), Response Genetics (Nasdaq: RGDX), SuperMedia (Nasdaq: SPMD), Park Bancorp (Nasdaq: PFED).

This article might interest other Internet Information Providers like Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), Yandex (Nasdaq: YNDX), LinkedIn (Nasdaq: LNKD), Akamai (Nasdaq: AKAM), Ancestry.com (Nasdaq: ACOM), AOL (NYSE: AOL), Atrinsic (Nasdaq: ATRN), Autobytel (Nasdaq: ABTL), Banks.com (AMEX: BNX), Bitauto (Nasdaq: BITA), China Finance Online (Nasdaq: JRJC), ChinaCache International (Nasdaq: CCIH), Clicker Inc. (OTC: CLKZ.PK), EDGAR Online (Nasdaq: EDGR), eDiets.com (Nasdaq: DIETD), Global Sources (Nasdaq: GSOL), HealthStream (Nasdaq: HSTM), HSW Int’l (Nasdaq: HSWI), InfoSpace (Nasdaq: INSP), InterXion (Nasdaq: INXN), Jiayuan.com (Nasdaq: DATE), Knobias (OTC: KBAS.PK), Local.com (Nasdaq: LOCM), LookSmart (Nasdaq: LOOK), Market Leader (Nasdaq: LEDR), MMR Information (OTC: MMRF.OB), Prime Companies (OTC: PCIR.PK), Quepasa (OTC: QPSA.PK), Rediff.com (Nasdaq: REDF), Renren (Nasdaq: RENN), Salon Media (OTC: SLNM.PK), Sohu.com (Nasdaq: SOHU), SouFun Holdings (Nasdaq: SFUN), Subaye (Nasdaq: SBAY), TechTarget (Nasdaq: TTGT), The Knot (Nasdaq: KNOT), TheStreet.com (NYSE: TST), Travelzoo (Nasdaq: TZOO), Tucows (AMEX: TCX), Vertro (Nasdaq: VTRO), Web.com (Nasdaq: WWWW), WebMD (Nasdaq: WBMD), Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), Youku.com (Nasdaq: YOKU) and Zaio Corp. (OTC: ZAOFF.PK).



Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.