Stock Market Outlook Weighed by North Korea, Europe and DC

The mood was set sour Monday morning in Asia, though a sketchy start still had European shares in the green. North Korean state television reported the death of its leader Kim Jong Il, and considering the age of the leader’s youngest son and expected successor, Kim Jong Un, uncertainty rules today. The NIKKEI 225 Index and Hang Seng Index were down over a full percentage point on those concerns. Last week, Fitch Ratings followed Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) downgrade of Belgium with a warning that it may downgrade the debt ratings of European nations soon. The S&P 500 Index was up 0.3% Friday despite ratings threats, and so American shares may take a different direction than Asia. Still, the North Korean uncertainty dictates a wary market at best. The dollar is stronger against the euro, as capital seeks safety.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Stock Market Outlook

American trading may also take its lead from Washington D.C. Monday. House Majority Leader Boehner said his GOP colleagues would reject the bill that passed the Senate in overwhelming fashion. The bill extends tax policy for two months, allowing Congress to avoid the year-end deadline and take off for the holidays. Depending on how the bill does in the House, we may see the payroll tax and unemployment extension debate run up to Christmas Eve. The uncertainty in Washington is likely to weigh on the tone of trading Monday morning, though I suspect traders expect Congress to come to a deal before the deadline. After all, that is the precedent. However, given the fact that the rhetoric from House Republicans does not match the agreement of the Senate GOP members, there is some question as to whether the New Year will come first. If that happens and taxes rise and unemployment benefit extensions expire, the market will pay a penalty.

Just one relatively insignificant economic data point reaches the wire Monday, with the reporting of the Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI, produced by the National Association of Home Builders, measures the mood of the home construction industry. The index improved to a mark of 20 in November, mostly on builders’ better though questionable expectations given what appeared an improving housing market. However, given that housing recovery faces new economic threat, and with continued strife around Europe, we suspect there will be little to no more positive change here. Still, builders may not yet see the economic issues we see ahead.

China reported that home prices had fallen in November in 49 of the 70 cities it monitors, compared to the 33 cities showing drops in prices in October. If the Chinese real estate market is about to collapse, global confidence could likewise be completely lost, in my view. I’ll have more to say about China later this week. Other international data reaching the wire Monday includes November unemployment for Hong Kong, November export and import data for Thailand, and October industrial production and retail sales for Colombia.

The global finance wire has a trilateral meeting of U.S., Indian and Japanese representatives in Washington D.C. Some $1.22 billion of Greek debt comes due Monday. The U.K. will respond to its banking commission’s recommendations.

The corporate wire has Russell adding 31 recent IPO offerings to its Global Index, perhaps giving lift to some as index funds add them to holdings. IPO lockup restrictions expire on Vanguard Health Systems (NYSE: VHS). The International Trade Commission will rule on Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) patent case against HTC. Monday’s earnings schedule includes Red Hat (NYSE: RHT), Shiloh Industries (Nasdaq: SHLO), Park Electrochemical (NYSE: PKE), Piedmont Natural Gas (NYSE: PNY) for certain, and possibly from Brooklyn Federal Bancorp (Nasdaq: BFSB), China Direct Industries (Nasdaq: CDII), China Holdings Real Estate (Nasdaq: HGSH), Citizens Community Bancorp (Nasdaq: CZWI), CPI Corp. (NYSE: CPY), CSP Inc. (Nasdaq: CSPI), Dynasil Corp. of America (Nasdaq: DYSL), Emcore (Nasdaq: EMKR), Ennis (NYSE: EBF), Good Times Restaurants (Nasdaq: GTIM), Integrated Electrical Services (Nasdaq: IESC), Jiangbo Pharmaceuticals (OTC: JGBO.PK), MVC Capital (NYSE: MVC), Pansoft (Nasdaq: PSOF), Seanergy Maritime (Nasdaq: SHIP) and VCG Holding (Nasdaq: VCGH).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Monday's Market - All Eyes on Italy

All eyes will be on Italy Monday morning as a post-Berlusconi era welcomes in new austerity. Wait a second, is that really good news to be celebrated on the streets of Italy by the Italian masses, or is it a disguised surprise pinned to the exiting Prime Minister, leaving his replacement clear of blame? Or it is more likely that the technocrats now leading Italy and Greece aren’t so interested in political futures, and are willing or ignorant to their new status as economic sacrificial lambs.

Italy will now move forward with an issuance of about 1.5 to 3.0 billion euros worth of five-year bonds, supposedly and hopefully to a receptive marketplace Monday. I suppose short-sighted markets will rally on this “change,” but keep an eye on the Italian bond yields, as they must come down from the 7% range reached last week for this to have a chance. Greece too awakens to a new leader this week, so a new day dawns for Europe. Here’s hoping it won’t rain fire as usual.

Keeping with international news, the Quartet of Middle East peace mediators, excluding Dennis Ross, will meet separately with Israeli and Palestinian officials as the region boils over. Iran is still at the forefront of the geopolitical wire, with the latest Republican presidential debate keying on the issue. Interestingly enough, the fellas with the hardest game plans for Iran, Romney and Gingrich, scored best.

There’s no major economic data set for release in the U.S. Monday. However, the Financial Executives Conference convenes, with accounting officials keying on financial reporting issues. Meanwhile, at some point this week we’ll hear more with regard to the imperfect reporting at Olympus (OCPNY.PK), as its lenders confront the company.

Look out, LinkedIn’s (Nasdaq: LNKD) IPO lockup curbs expire, so more pressure could drive against the shares this week. Look for investor and/or analyst meetings at Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), Reynolds American (NYSE: RAI), Denbury Resources (NYSE: DNR) and QEP Resources (NYSE: QEP).

Some of the noteworthy earnings reports for Monday include Urban Outfitters (Nasdaq: URBN), J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP), Lowe's (NYSE:LOW), American Midstream Partners (Nasdaq: AMID), Assured Guaranty (NYSE: AGO), Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD), Varian Semiconductor (Frankfurt: VSE.F), Avatar Holdings (Nasdaq: AVTR), Banks.com (AMEX:BNX), China Auto Logistics (Nasdaq: CALI), China Ceramics (Nasdaq:CCCL), China Natural Gas (Nasdaq: CHNG), China Shengda Packaging (Nasdaq: CPGI), Chinanet Online (Nasdaq: CNET), Craft Brewers Alliance (Nasdaq: HOOK), Dynegy (NYSE: DYN), eDiets.com (Nasdaq: DIET), Michael Foods (Nasdaq: MIKL), Motricity (Nasdaq: MOTR), SORL Auto Parts (Nasdaq: SORL), Towerstream (Nasdaq: TWER), Uranium Resources (Nasdaq: URRE), VisionChina Media (Nasdaq: VISN) and several others.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Stock Market Moving News 10-27-11

The day's top headlines and most important stock market moving news links are found here daily.

Stock Market News

• Global Stocks Rally on Greece Solution


• Europe Bolsters Crisis Fighting Tools


• Criticism Remains over EU Arrangement


• Some Greek Banks to be Nationalized


• Obama Acting Like the Candy Man for Kids


• Dollar Plunges as Euro Rallies


• GDP Surprise in Q3, +2.5%


• Unemployment Claims were About the Same


• Papandreou Presents Deal to Greeks


• Pending Home Sales Soft in September


• Consumer Confidence Deeply Beaten


• Gold Moves Even Higher


• Mortgage Forecast Proved Spot On


• Natural Gas Report


• Exxon Mobil Profit Machine (NYSE: XOM)


• Groupon IPO Fire


• Nintendo Losses Grow (OTC: NTDOY.PK)


• Time Warner Cable Profit Misses (NYSE: TWC)


• Hertz (NYSE: HTZ) Puts Dollar Thrifty (NYSE: DTG) Bid on Hold


• United Continental Profit Misses (NYSE: UAL)


• Occupy Oakland Protesters Rally Around Injured Veteran


• 4.7 Mag Earthquake Strikes Northern California


• Northeast Braces for Snowfall


• Nationwide Strike Set for November 2nd


• Man Pulled from Rubble 4 Days Later in Turkey


• World Series Game 6 Preview


• Madoff and Wife Considered Suicide


• Oil is Higher Today


• Europe Begs Chinese Aid


• Debt Collectors Harrassing People


• Medicare Premiums Up Less than Expected


• Yahoo! Earnings Calendar

Wall Street Planner - 10-18-11

Tuesday’s Wall Street planner includes the Producer Price Index, the Housing Market Index, Treasury International Capital Report, same-store sales data, discussions with the Fed and Treasury Chiefs, notice of yet another Republican presidential debate and a slew of major EPS reports, including from the likes of Apple, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Intel and Coca-Cola. Your full Wall Street planner follows.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Wall Street Schedule

Inflation Deflation?

Fresh pricing data reaches the wire Tuesday morning, with the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September at 8:30 AM. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see prices up 0.3% at the producer level in September, following no change in August. When excluding food and energy, the economists’ outlook is for a lesser 0.1% rate of growth, matching the prior month rate. Demand destruction is in play as economic forecasts cloud over.

Fed Speak

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke addresses a conference hosted by the Boston Fed Tuesday. Chairman Bernanke will discuss the long-term effects of “The Great Recession.” Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Geithner testifies before the Senate Small Business Committee on the Small Business Jobs Act of 2010. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart speaks to the economic outlook before a CFA society in Tennessee.

International Trade

The Treasury International Capital (TIC) data is due for the month of August at 9:00 AM Tuesday. Last month’s data showed a modest net increase in foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities (+$24.6 billon).

Real Estate

The latest Housing Market Index is up for report at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday. This metric is a barometer of the homebuilder mood, and economists on average see the index moving up to a mark of 15 in October, up from 14 in September. Keeping in mind that a mark of 50 separates good and bad moods, it would seem builders have been near suicidal.

Retail Sector

The latest take on retail same-store sales will reach the wire before the market open Tuesday. Last week’s reports from the ICSC showed week-over-week sales fell 0.1% in the period ending October 8. The year-over-year sales change was down to +2.8%, versus +3.7% the week before. Redbook showed year-over-year sales at 4.8% (Redbook is always higher).

Political and Geopolitical

Yet another Republican debate dots the calendar for Tuesday evening. Overseas, the Bank of England ‘s Mervyn King presents policy before the Institute of Directors.

Corporate Calendar

The corporate calendar has Zeltiq Aesthetics likely to price its IPO Tuesday. Big earnings reports are scheduled for Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) and Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). Also look for reports from Ameriserv Financial (Nasdaq: ASRV), Badger Meter (NYSE: BMI), Check Point Software (Nasdaq: CHKP), Cree (Nasdaq: CREE), Crown (NYSE: CCK), CSX (NYSE: CSX), Cybex Int’l (Nasdaq: CYBI), Dominos Pizza (NYSE: DPZ), EMC (NYSE: EMC), Flexsteel (Nasdaq: FLXS), Forest Laboratories (NYSE: FRX), FSI Int’l (Nasdaq: FSII), Fulton Fin’l (Nasdaq: FULT), Genuine Parts (NYSE: GPC), Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG), Hawaiian Holdings (Nasdaq: HA), Infinera (Nasdaq: INFN), Intuitive Surgical (Nasdaq: ISRG), JAKKS Pacific (Nasdaq: JAKK), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Juniper Networks (Nasdaq: JNPR), Lakeland Bancorp (Nasdaq: LBAI), Linear Technology (Nasdaq: LLTC), Manhattan Associates (Nasdaq: MANH), Marten Transport (Nasdaq: MRTN), Mercantile Bank (Nasdaq: MBWM), New Oriental Education & Technology (NYSE: EDU), Omnicom (NYSE: OMC), Parker Hannifin (NYSE: PH), Pinnacle Financial Partners (Nasdaq: PNFP), Platinum Underwriters (NYSE: PTP), Polaris (NYSE: PII), Renasant (Nasdaq: RNST), RLI (NYSE: RLI), Sonic (Nasdaq: SONC), Sonoco Products (NYSE: SON), State Street (NYSE: STT), Unifirst (NYSE: UNF), United Rentals (NYSE: URI), UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH), W.W. Grainger (NYSE: GWW), Waste Connections (NYSE: WCN), Werner Enterprises (Nasdaq: WERN) and Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO).

Find your Wall Street daily planner here at the Wall Street Greek blog each morning.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Greek Default Speculation Drives Global Banking and Stock Exodus

A tough day for global traders has been especially intense in the banking sector Monday. A bad brew of news and rumors has the group giving back significant ground this morning. It started last week, when rumors surfaced that seemed to be positioning Germany for exit on Greece. Speculation has built around a Greek default idea, and investors likening it to a Lehman event (and some) have stocks sinking today, with the dollar muscling up and commodities mostly lower as a result.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Greek Default Speculation Drives Global Banking and Stock Exodus

GLOBAL MARKETS		COMMODITY FUTURES & USD
Dow	-0.9%	Dollar Index	+0.9%
S&P 500	-0.8%	WTI Crude	+1.6%
NASDAQ	-0.2%	Gasoline RBOB	-0.2%
Euro Stoxx 50	-3.8%	Natural Gas	-0.3%
FTSE 100	-1.6%	Gold	-1.9%
DAX	-2.3%	Silver	-2.2%
NIKKEI	-2.3%	Wheat	-0.8%
Hang Seng	-4.2%	Corn	-0.1%
S&P / ASX 200	-3.7%	Lumber	-3.7%
Prices measured at 12:10 PM ET

Overseas activity is dictating the tone of trading today. Greek Prime Minister Papandreou’s Saturday address included more promises that other Europeans and investors seem to think will prove useless. His latest flail against the will of his people is a plan to raise real estate taxes to help with debt payments to the IMF and EU. Papandreou ensures the collection of this new tax by attaching them to utility payment collections. So, unless Greeks are willing to live without water and electricity, they will pay them. However, Greeks don’t have to like it.

The global community is paying more attention to the Greek people today, who protested en masse again Saturday. The Greek government is not secure, and losing its grip further with each new austerity measure. At the same time, the rest of Europe is losing its will under amassing domestic political pressures. Germany is now openly thought to be preparing its banks for a Greek default. This is a scenario that raises speculation about European Union and euro zone unraveling. It’s a Lehman-like plot that investors are worrying about today, and so European banks are in trouble as a result.

BNP Paribas (OTC: BNPQY.PK)	-11%
Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB)	-6.5%
Societe Generale (OTC: SCGLY.PK)	-6.3%
Credit Agricole (OTC: CRARY.PK)	-8.9%
Banco Santander (NYSE: STD)	-8.6%
National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG)	-7%
Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE)	-2.6%
Allied Irish PLC (OTC: AIBYY.PK)	-6%
Lloyd’s (NYSE: LYG)	-2.6%
Barclays (NYSE: BCS)	-1.9%
UBS (NYSE: UBS)	-1.4%
Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS)	-2.1%
RBS (NYSE: RBS)	-3%
Prices measured at 12:30 PM ET

United Kingdom banking regulators levied expensive reforms against the Kingdom’s largest institutions in order to protect taxpayers from future failures and financial bailouts. The reforms are expected to cost U.K. banks $11.12 billion annually.

U.S. banks with global exposures have not been left out of the day’s demise, with Citigroup (NYSE: C) illustrating that down 1.5%, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) down 1.7% and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) off 2.8% at 12:37 PM ET. Adding to the pile, Citigroup cut its forecasts for U.S. bank earnings by an average of 45% on European driven impact to global equity and credit markets.

President Obama Introduces Jobs Bill

The President followed through on his jobs speech by today presenting his bill to Congress. He spoke with teachers and construction workers by his side, putting a non-political face to his message. His hope is that the American people will force his political opponents to act in favor of economic stimulus. The long-term American unemployed and the currently threatened were urged to write their Congressmen. But, Nobel Economic Laureate, Paul Krugman, says the chances of the President finding political support are zero now. He says the Republican Party would even vote down a bill to honor motherhood today if the President proposed it. Krugman ominously compared the current period to the period of austerity that led to The Great Depression.

The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) is holding its annual meeting, and Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher will discuss monetary policy in a global context in a 5:00 PM address.

Republican candidates for president will debate again this evening, this time in Tampa, Florida. This Tea Party themed debate kicks off at 8:00 PM ET.

Corporate Wire

In concert with CEO Brian Moynihan’s presentation at the Barclays Capital Global Financial Services Conference in New York, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) issued a press release on its reorganization, stating that it would eliminate about 30K jobs while saving $5 billion per year by 2014. BofA had been moving counter to the market trend, but is down 0.4% at 1:00 PM ET. Also at the Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS) conference, look for presentations by NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) and Unum Group (NYSE: UNM).

McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP) said it would split into two companies with segments focused on global markets and textbook publishing. The company had come under pressure from shareholder activist Jana Partners LLC to do so. The transaction would likely be completed in 2012 and come about via a tax-free spin-off of the education unit.

Broadcom (Nasdaq: BRCM) agreed to buy NetLogic Microsystems (Nasdaq: NETL) for $3.7 billion in cash. NETL shareholders got a nice surprise today, as the $50 effective price is 57% higher than the close of trading on September 9.

The rest of the corporate news has shareholder and/or analyst days at Juniper Networks (Nasdaq: JNPR), Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) and W.W. Grainger (NYSE: GWW). Look for EPS reports from Brady Corp. (NYSE: BRC), Electromed (Nasdaq: ELMD), Napco Security Technologies (Nasdaq: NSSC), Optical Cable (Nasdaq: OCC), Pharmacyclics (Nasdaq: PCYC), pSivida (Nasdaq: PSDV), Streamline Health Solutions (Nasdaq: STRM), ThermoGenesis (Nasdaq: KOOL) and a few more.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

The Greek's Take on Friday's Market Upheaval and the Day's Business

Very little on the preset market schedule seemed to actually impact stocks today, save perhaps President Obama’s jobs address. Rather, the day’s global trading was hinged on European unraveling and a terrorism threat to the U.S. We cover these events, plus July’s Wholesale Trade Report and the day’s leading corporate stories herein.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: BAC, NYSE: MCD, NYSE: KR, Nasdaq: LULU, NYSE: NVS, NYSE: MRK, NYSE: WPO, Nasdaq: AUXL, NYSE: NFG, Nasdaq: SPNC, Nasdaq: ACET, Nasdaq: DUCK, NYSE: KR, Nasdaq: LMNR, Nasdaq: OPTT, Nasdaq: PPHM, NYSE: PNY, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, Nasdaq: QQQQ.

The Greek’s Take on Friday’s Market Upheaval and the Day’s Business

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Indexes all closed roughly 2.5% lower today. Overseas, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 4.15%%, while the NIKKEI dropped 0.6%; the Hang Seng fell 0.23%; and the S&P ASX 200 rose 0.16%. The Dollar Index Spot rose 1.2% Friday, thanks to the upheaval in Europe. Commodities were generally lower today on the dollar’s strength. Near term WTI Crude Futures fell 2.1%, to $87.20. Gold was unchanged at $1856.90.

The President’s Speech

He said it sternly and he said it loudly, as President Obama presented an economic stimulus plan that had been well-vetted before economists before its release. The President noted the details of his initiative to stimulate jobs and to keep those facing imminent layoff in their jobs; plus schemes to induce new hiring and inspire business investment; not to mention, to put more money in the peoples’ hands via the extension of payroll tax cuts (avoiding an effective tax hike). I listened to it, and I found nothing I could object with. The program was even paid for, but that’s exactly where his opponents will find issue. Some of the areas in which the President wants to cut back spending to pay for his plan are areas often defended by his opponents. At the same time, though, he conceded to a need to reform social security for the future of those currently paying into it, not for retired seniors. In any event, the plan itself offered little reason to sell off stocks Friday, in my view, and even presented hope as some sort of negotiated final product should be helpful.

European Upheaval

Rather, what started stocks lower globally Friday was European upheaval supported by an ominous terrorism threat in the United States. Tensions have been intensifying between the Germans and its friends in the European Union. Earlier this week, a German constitutional court ruled that the German government’s issuances of capital into packages for the aid of Greece and the eurozone were legal, but it also recommended that future payments be more scrutinized by the full government. This slows a process that might delay the issuance of often quickly demanded capital (by antsy markets). Thus, a wall is building in strength against future bailout aid for the nation’s European brothers.

Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Jean-Claude Trichet raised his voice in response to a testy question from a German reporter. Trichet defended the ECB’s record of strong support for German economic health. However, this morning, Germany’s leading representative at the ECB resigned from his post, in what many are assuming was a gesture of dissatisfaction with the bank’s recent interventions in the eurozone’s debt markets (like our Fed). The German representative, Jurgen Stark, formally attributed his resignation to “personal reasons.”

Meanwhile, today IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde went on record warning that the global economy was entering a dangerous new phase. She spoke in London, ahead of the G7 summit scheduled to take place in Marseilles, France. Lagarde, who replaced Dominque Strauss-Kahn, said, “The world is collectively suffering from a crisis of confidence, in the face of a deteriorating economic outlook and rising concerns about the health of sovereigns and banks.” Interestingly, rumors also warmed today regarding German planning for the protection of its domestic banks in the scenario of a Greek default. On Saturday, George Papandreou, Greece’s Prime Minister delivers a speech on the state of the Greek economy. However, today, the Greek Finance Minister put down rumors of a near-term Greek default. The euro pared some of the day’s losses against the dollar following the Greek statement. Meanwhile Greece prepares for massive protests in its second largest city of Thessaloniki Saturday.

Wholesale Trade Data

The one bit of preset data on the calendar for Friday was the Wholesale Trade Report for July. It was pretty much overwhelmed by the bombardment of other issues on the market. July’s wholesale inventories increased by 0.8% in July, however, wholesalers sales were flat through the month. Inventory growth is healthy when empty stores are being rebuilt or when sales are increasing alongside them. Neither was the case in July, and so the inventory-to-sales ratio deteriorated to 1.17, from 1.16 in June. Economists expected wholesale inventories to increase by 0.8%, versus the 0.6% increase in June. While naïve traders may view the in-line result as a neutral factor, we would argue it is not.

The Corporate Wire

Four companies really keyed the corporate wire Friday, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD), Kroger (NYSE: KR) and Lululemon (Nasdaq: LULU). The Wall Street Journal Reports that BofA officials have discussed the possibility of eliminating 40K positions during a first wave of restructuring, which its CEO is scheduled to discuss at the Barclays Capital 2011 Global Financial Services Conference on Monday (NYSE: BCS). A job cut figure may not meet the light yet though, due to the forum.

McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) shares were down about 5% in late afternoon trading Friday, after the fast food giant reported August same-store sales short of analysts’ views. MCD’s same-store sales increased 3.5%, but were reportedly short of expectations due to European weakness. August still marked the company’s 100th consecutive month of global same-store sales growth.

Kroger (NYSE: KR) shares are off 6% near 3:00 PM EDT, as EPS before tax adjustments reached $0.41 a share, short of the analysts’ consensus for $0.43. Revenues exceeded expectations, but Kroger talked about cost pressures and the use of incentive programs, along with pressures on consumers, driving lower margin sales.

lululemon is off 6% Friday, despite beating analysts’ expectations. The company earned $0.26, versus the analysts’ consensus for 22 cents, based on Factset data. What hurt LULU was a conservative revenue outlook and its guidance for EPS of $0.22 to $0.24 for the third quarter, versus analyst expectations at the high end of the range, based on Thomson Reuters data. LULU did, however, raise its full year EPS guidance.

Merck (NYSE: MRK) and Novartis (NYSE: NVS) are down today, as an FDA panel reviewed several osteoporosis drugs, including medicine from the two. FDA advisors are concerned that long-term use of the drugs may lead to unusual fractures. Thus, the FDA may advise for a time limit in the use of osteoporosis drugs.

There were analysts and shareholder meetings Friday at The Washington Post (NYSE: WPO), Auxilium Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: AUXL) and National Fuel Gas (NYSE: NFG). Spectranetics (Nasdaq: SPNC) presented at the Stifel Nicolaus & Co. Healthcare Conference. The EPS schedule had news from Aceto (Nasdaq: ACET), Duckwall-ALCO Stores (Nasdaq: DUCK), Kroger (NYSE: KR), Limoneira (Nasdaq: LMNR), Ocean Power Technologies (Nasdaq: OPTT), Peregrine Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: PPHM), Piedmont Natural Gas (NYSE: PNY) and a few others.

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Smart Money Runs on Terror Threat

Smart Money

After a strongly worded and sternly spoken address to Congress, through which the President outlined a jobs plan that seemed impossible for Republicans to oppose, the market would have been a sure bet to rally heartily Friday. But not even a millisecond passed after the President’s final word was spoken, when TV reporters announced breaking news.

A “credible but unconfirmed threat” was reported for the important American cities of New York and Washington DC. A warning was shared that al-Qaeda operatives may be plotting attacks in those cities for around the anniversary of 911. Security was stepped up almost immediately in those cities, and overseas markets have reacted. Stocks in the U.S. are lower to start the day as a result.

Thus, despite the President's effectively addressing my concerns regarding an economy I see slipping into recession, I still suggest investors temper enthusiasm Friday. Since September 11 falls on Sunday, investors are not likely to want to hold stocks through the weekend as a result. The reason for this is clear if one reviews the stock market action that followed September 11, 2001, which "smart money" is very well aware of. Thus, the rally that might have followed the President’s enthusing address has been effectively negated, perhaps by the sensible risk reduction of smart money investors.

Article should interest investors in SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), ProShares Short Dow 30 (NYSE: DOG), ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS), ProShares Ultra QQQ (NYSE: QLD), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX), The NASDAQ OMX Group (Nasdaq: NDAQ), Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), E*Trade Financial (Nasdaq: ETFC), Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), Asset Acceptance Capital (Nasdaq: AACC), Affiliated Managers (NYSE: AMG), Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP), TD Ameritrade (Nasdaq: AMTD), BGC Partners (Nasdaq: BGCP), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), Calamos Asset Management (Nasdaq: CLMS), CME Group (NYSE: CME), Cohn & Steers (NYSE: CNS), Cowen Group (Nasdaq: COWN), Diamond Hill Investment (Nasdaq: DHIL), Dollar Financial (Nasdaq: DLLR), Duff & Phelps (Nasdaq: DUF), Encore Capital (Nasdaq: ECPG), Edelman Financial (Nasdaq: EF), Equifax (NYSE: EFX), Epoch (Nasdaq: EPHC), Evercore Partners (NYSE: EVR), EXCorp. (Nasdaq: EZPW), FBR Capital Markets (Nasdaq: FBCM), First Cash Financial (Nasdaq: FCFS), Federated Investors (NYSE: FII), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Fidelity National Financial (NYSE: FNF), Financial Engines (Nasdaq: FNGN), FXCM (Nasdaq: FXCM), Gamco Investors (NYSE: GBL), GAIN Capital (Nasdaq: GCAP), Green Dot (Nasdaq: GDOT), GFI Group (Nasdaq: GFIG), Greenhill (NYSE: GHL), Gleacher (Nasdaq: GLCH), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR), INTL FCStone (Nasdaq: INTL), Intersections (Nasdaq: INTX), Investment Technology (NYSE: ITG), Invesco (NYSE: IVZ), Jefferies (NYSE: JEF), JMP Group (NYSE: JMP), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS), KBW (NYSE: KBW), Knight Capital (NYSE: KCG), Lazard (NYSE: LAZ), Legg Mason (NYSE: LM), LPL Investment (Nasdaq: LPLA), Ladenburg Thalmann (AMEX: LTS), Mastercard (NYSE: MA), Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), MF Global (NYSE: MF), Moneygram (NYSE: MGI), MarketAxess (Nasdaq: MKTX), Marlin Business Services (Nasdaq: MRLN), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), MSCI (Nasdaq: MSCI), MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG), NewStar Financial (Nasdaq: NEWS), National Financial Partners (NYSE: NFP), Nelnet (NYSE: NNI), Northern Trust (Nasdaq: NTRS), NetSpend (Nasdaq: NTSP), Ocwen Financial (NYSE: OCN), Oppenheimer (NYSE: OPY), optionsXpress (Nasdaq: OXPS), PICO (Nasdaq: PICO), Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC), PMI Group (NYSE: PMI), Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN), Portfolio Recovery (Nasdaq: PRAA), Raymond James (NYSE: RJF), SEI Investments (Nasdaq: SEIC), Stifel Financial (NYSE: SF), Safeguard Scientifics (NYSE: SFE), State Street (NYSE: STT), SWS (NYSE: SWS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), Visa (NYSE: V) and Virtus Investment Partners (Nasdaq: VRTS).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Everything You Need to Know About Thursday's Business

With the President’s speech to reign supreme among market moving data, Thursday’s other reports were nonetheless worth review. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke addressed the economic outlook in Minnesota today, and Jean-Claude Trichet got testy during his post monetary policy press conference. It’s that kind of environment I suppose, and with the Teamsters facing up against the Tea Party now, it could start getting ugly on Main Street.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Everything You Need to Know About Thursday's Business

The Dow fell 1.0%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.8% and the S&P 500 declined 1.1%.

Catch President Obama’s highly anticipated jobs and debt discussion before a joint session of Congress tonight at 7:00 PM ET. This is a rarity, usually only occurring at times of war, perhaps eight times in total throughout our nation’s history. Here’s to hoping the levity of the matter is not as significant as it seems.

The Bank of England (BOE) today determined to keep its official bank rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%, and to keep its asset purchases at 200 billion pounds. The European Central Bank (ECB) also kept rates steady today via its monetary policy meeting. Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB chief, got testy when tested by German reporters, responding with this tirade, “I would very much like to hear congratulations for an institution which has delivered price stability in Germany over almost 13 years at 1.55 per cent approximately… which is better than has been obtained in this country over the last 50 years.” European stocks took a dive in late trading before recovering to close in the green.

The OECD published its interim economic forecast today, and stated that economic recovery appears to have come to a halt in industrialized nations. The group said that growth remained strong in most emerging economies, though at a moderated pace.

The International Trade Report for July showed a dramatic and unexpected narrowing of the trade deficit. The deficit was squeezed to $44.8 billion, down from $51.6 billion in June. The good news was that it occurred due to a pick-up in exports and not lighter demand for imports. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the trade deficit to narrow much less, to $51.9 billion.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose by 2,000 in the week ending September 3, to 414K, versus the revised higher previous period mark of 412K (up from 409K). The four-week moving average increased 3,750, reaching 414,750.

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index for the week ending September 4 fell to its second lowest mark of the year. The consumer confidence measure reached negative 49.3, down from the prior week’s minus 49.1.

The Quarterly Services Survey, which takes a look at the information and technology industry, offered a bit of good news Thursday. The survey showed a 2.0% quarter-over-quarter increase in information revenue. That was markedly better than the 0.2% revised rise from the first quarter. However, it is the third quarter we’re worried about, and there are signs of information technology spending softness, as we noted in our Factory Orders article.

Consumer Credit data showed a second consecutive strong increase in consumer capital access. July credit expanded by $12 billion, which followed a revised $11.3 billion June increase. Economists were looking for an expansion in credit of just $6.0 billion for July. Both June and July gains were driven by an expansion in non-revolving credit on motor vehicle sales strength.

Commercial crude oil inventory fell by 4 million barrels in the week ending September 2, but remained above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventory increased by 0.2 million barrels, and remained within the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Natural Gas inventory increased by 64 Bcf, though stores remained 60 Bcf below the five-year average.

On the corporate wire, Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) saw Third Point LLC take a 5.15% stake and call for changes in the company’s business strategy. AOL (NYSE: AOL) let Michael Arrington go. Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) bought the well known restaurant rater, Zagat, for an undisclosed amount. It looks as though Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) may get a break from the state of California, after negotiating and offering to hire a good number of the state’s citizens if the tax were put off. It’s not exactly known what happened, but Amazon’s Cali customers look to have another year of current taxation rules to shop by. FBI agents raided the headquarters of California solar panel maker Solyndra, after it declared bankruptcy just after receiving $500 million in federal loan guarantees. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) is launching its lay-away program early this year (October), in hopes of squeezing as much juice from a dry consumer as possible. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) dropped today after an FDA panel said its stroke-prevention drug should not get expanded use.

The Barclays Capital Back to School Consumer Conference (NYSE: BCS) lined up presenters Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) and Coca Cola (NYSE: KO). There were analysts and/or shareholder meetings at General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Ariba (Nasdaq: ARBA), Ecolab (NYSE: ECL), Covidien (NYSE: COV) and Photronics (Nasdaq: PLAB). EPS reports arrived from ABM Industries (NYSE: ABM), Cherokee (Nasdaq: CHKE), Ditech Networks (Nasdaq: DITC), Globecomm Systems (Nasdaq: GCOM), Korn Ferry (NYSE: KFY), Lakeland Industries (Nasdaq: LAKE), LightPath Technologies (Nasdaq: LPTH), Myrexis (Nasdaq: MYRX), Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD), Titan Machinery (Nasdaq: TITN), TRC Cos. (NYSE: TRR), Ulta Salon (Nasdaq: ULTA), United Natural Foods (Nasdaq: UNFI), Verint Systems (Nasdaq: VRNT) and ZBB Energy (AMEX: ZBB).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Business Review 08-30-11

A lousy start to the day, the result of plummeting consumer confidence, was rescued by reported apparent interest at the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy. The Dow closed up fractionally, as the market was enthused by some FOMC board member interest in new economic stimulus. Gold was up $49 or 2.8% through late afternoon trade, to $1838, as nascent economic hope seems sure to deteriorate toward reality. WTE Crude oil futures were up 1.6%, to $88.70. The Dollar Index was up fractionally to $73.98. Find our full business review below.



Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Business Review

Tuesday’s major news driver was an abysmal bit of data from the Conference Board. Consumer Confidence dropped into oblivion, as it marked lows not seen since the darkest days of the financial crisis. The Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 44.5 in August, down from 59.2 in July. Economists were looking for a reading of 52.5 this month. It was deflating, since it followed Monday’s strong consumer spending data, where Personal Outlays were measured higher by 0.8% in July.



The latest same-store sales data produced by the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) showed sales rose 0.1% in the week ending August 27. The prior week’s report showed sales fell by 1.0% week-to-week. Sales improved by 3.0% year-to-year through each of the last two weeks, but on a real basis, taking inflation into account, we’re looking at a pathetic state of consumer activity nonetheless. Redbook reported the year-to-year sales pace at 4.0% this week, better than the 3.6% seen last week. We are entering the height of back-to-school shopping season, so this latest consumer data is especially disheartening, however, actual spending does not always reflect the consumer mood.



The S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index showed another month of home price strengthening. Measuring the month of June this time, S&P Case Shiller reports its 10-City Index rose 1.1% on an unadjusted basis. Seasonally adjusted, prices were flat month-to-month. On a year-to-year basis, home prices fell 3.9% in June. However, because this data is so old, it fails to reflect the reality we’re seeing in other data points, where prices are marking gains against year-to-year comparable periods.



It was just a week ago that the FHFA offered another month of home price rise on a month-to-month basis (+0.9%). As the bar has lowered, home prices have found stable ground, but with the economy on the skids, uncertainty holds for housing.



State Street (NYSE: STT) reported a sharp drop-off in investor confidence in August. The bank’s metric, its Investor Confidence Index, fell 12.9 points to a mark of 89.6, the result of our nation’s fiscal fumbling and the negligent downgrade of our sovereign credit by Standard & Poor’s. As a result, the North American index dropped 13.9 points, as the European measure fell 4.6 and Asia slipped fractionally.



The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued the minutes of its August 9 meeting.



The EPS schedule highlighted reports from 1-800-Flowers.com (Nasdaq: FLWS), Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), China Finance Online (Nasdaq: JRJC), Concurrent Computer (Nasdaq: CCUR), Daegis (Nasdaq: DAEG), Dollar General (NYSE: DG), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), DSW (NYSE: DSW), Edap TMS (Nasdaq: EDAP), Gordman’s Stores (Nasdaq: GMAN), Jeffersonville Bancorp (Nasdaq: JFBC), Lantronix (Nasdaq: LTRX), Noah Education (NYSE: NED), Overland Storage (Nasdaq: OVRL), Pittsburgh and West Virginia Rail (AMEX: PW), PVH Corp. (NYSE: PVH), Rada Electronic Industries (Nasdaq: RADA), First Marblehead (NYSE: FMD), Unilife (Nasdaq: UNIS), Vera Bradley (Nasdaq: VRA) and more.



The Day’s Most Active Stocks Included:

WINNERS	LOSERS
CoreLogic (Nasdaq: CLGX)	NuPathe (Nasdaq: PATH)
Seanergy Maritime (Nasdaq: SHIP)	Atlantic Coast Federal (Nasdaq: ACFC)
Sinovac Biotech (Nasdaq: SVA)	National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG)
Primo Water (Nasdaq: PRMW)	B+H Ocean Carriers (AMEX: BHO)
BTU Int’l (Nasdaq: BTUI)	NTS Realty (AMEX: NLP)
Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW)	CNinsure (Nasdaq: CISG)
Corinthian Colleges (Nasdaq: COCO)	Central European Distribution (Nasdaq: CEDC)
New Energy Systems (Nasdaq: NEWN)	Carolina Trust (Nasdaq: CART)
Novavax (Nasdaq: NVAX)	Granite City Food & Brew (Nasdaq: GCFB)
Richmont Mines (AMEX: RIC)	Peoples Education Holdings (Nasdaq: PEDH)
Imperial Sugar (Nasdaq: IPSU)	DAQQ New Energy (NYSE: DQ)
FelCor Lodging (NYSE: FCH)	China Auto Logistics (Nasdaq: CALI)
Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS)	Gulf Resources (Nasdaq: GURE)
Frontline (NYSE: FRO)	Lizhan Environmental (Nasdaq: LZEN)
The KEYW Holding (Nasdaq: KEYW)	Donegal Group (Nasdaq: DGICB)
Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH)	Media General (NYSE: MEG)
SatCon Technology (Nasdaq: SATC)	MoSys (Nasdaq: MOSY)
Excel Maritime (NYSE: EXM)	Retractable Technologies (AMEX: RVP)
BioLineRx (Nasdaq: BLRX)	T3 Motion (Nasdaq: TTTM)
Global Geophysical (NYSE: GGS)	Sterling Financial (Nasdaq: STSA)
GMX Resources (Nasdaq: GMXR)	Trunkbow Int’l (Nasdaq: TBOW)
Sequans Communications (Nasdaq: SQNS)	VASCO Data Security (Nasdaq: VDSI)
Delcath Systems (Nasdaq: DCTH)	EMCORE (Nasdaq: EMKR)
SMF Energy (Nasdaq: FUEL)	Vision Sciences (Nasdaq: VSCI)
Celsion (Nasdaq: CLSN)	Stratus Properties (Nasdaq: STRS)
QuinStreet (Nasdaq: QNST)	Life Partners (Nasdaq: LPHI)
Dehaier Medical (Nasdaq: DHRM)	Penson Worldwide (Nasdaq: PNSN)

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.