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Kamis, 15 Desember 2011

Today’s Republican Disconnect with America

Republican Party disconnect with AmericaI sat up late the other night watching the C-SPAN coverage of the House of Representatives debate on the payroll tax break and unemployment benefit extensions. I was appalled by the Republican positions, and the recurring tone I keep hearing from the party I use to call my own and whose conservative values I continue to agree with. I’m now an independent due to the perversions that have eroded each party’s core message. Economically speaking, I see neither current version of the Republican nor Democratic Party as holding the perfect cure to what ails us. While another article might discuss my concern with the Democratic Party’s embrace and promotion of immoral practices for the sake of personal liberation, this article is focused on the Republican disconnect with America or the great poverty stricken segment of America. This broken rail was once again evidenced in the latest legislative lunacy.

political bloggerOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Today's Republican Disconnect with America



In case you’ve been caught up in holiday shopping or catching up with work before your holiday vacation, our Congress is currently entangled in a messy legislative debate over the future of the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance benefits. Basically, last year’s program extensions need to be renewed again this year, or those temporary benefits will expire. If that happens, Americans will face new burdens at a still vulnerable time for our economy.

The Payroll Tax break against Social Security payments would lift that rate back up to 6.2% from its current 4.2% break rate. Your shock is well-founded, as those tax cuts are shorting the same Social Security program that is already handicapped if not doomed. And yes, we are underfunding it even worse than usual today as part of an effort to stimulate spending and the economy. There is, however, a new budget-minded focus within Congress that is seeking ways to fund these cuts. For instance, the savings from the Iraq troop withdrawal have been put forth as one potential source. The Democrats would like to bank those savings against the budget deficit and instead institute a new surtax on those Americans with incomes of more than $1 million. As you may have guessed, the Republican Party opposes any tax increase, even if it be upon those who can afford to offer a helping hand now.

This legislative issue weighs for Americans who are already earning a steady income, though it is surely critical to part-timers with a shortage of fund flows. Another issue at hand could more significantly affect America, as it supports Americans who have no other source of income currently. It is what keeps people housed and from committing crimes of necessity; it is what keeps hope alive.

Unemployment benefits have proven inadequate for the massive pool of long-term unemployed Americans displaced by this deep economic recession and sluggish follow through. With the unemployment rate last listed at 8.6%, though arguably closer to 8.8%, given the drop in workforce count in November, it is clearly not yet time to cut off the unemployment benefit extension program (which takes insured unemployment to 99 weeks). The House Republicans are seeking to pass legislation that will ease coverage to 59 weeks after January 1. Of course, the percentage level of the unemployed more importantly represents about 13.3 million Americans, not including the disenchanted and desperate. Furthermore, the Republican version of aid would reportedly leave more than 3 million Americans high and dry immediately, with no other source of income to make mortgage or rent payments, or basically to survive.

Believe it or not, that’s not where the disconnect ends. You see, Republicans also want to make it harder for those people, who would still qualify, to qualify for unemployment insurance benefits. This obstacle to the critical aid that pays the rent for many who are jobless through little fault of their own would present itself via mandatory drug tests. The argument posed on the floor of the House for this was “to ensure benefit recipients are employable,” because if they are on drugs then they are likely to lose their next job. In other words, they are deemed to have a more important problem that should be addressed first, before our fellow Americans are awarded the insurance benefits they paid for through regular cuts from their weekly pay checks. Don’t forget that we pay directly for unemployment insurance; it’s not an unfunded social program. Next, I suppose, Republicans would ask seniors to pass a drug test to determine whether they should receive their hard-earned social security checks. This is obscene!

However, that’s still not where the lunacy ends. The bill passed by House Republicans, which was doomed to fail in the Senate or by the President’s pen, also calls for the building of the Keystone XL Pipeline, which, oh by the way, I support. As you might have guessed though, that was not in last year’s legislation. Rather, it’s the effort of the GOP to stick an energy action into an employment bill under the premise that it is a job creator. Clearly, the construction of a pipeline would create jobs, whether the tens of thousands or the 100K to 280K long-term total touted by some in the Republican Party, or about 20,000 or so that is more likely immediately. But it is misplaced within this bill. In fact, each particle of this legislation should be independent of one another, for the purpose of clarity and the sake of the American people.

The President and the Democrats were terrified that the House Republicans would pass this bill and then leave town (before the Senate could pass its own version), thus leaving the onus of unemployment benefits on the shoulders of the President and his party. Americans wouldn’t remember the pipeline or the drug test if the Senate voted the bill down or if the President vetoed it as promised. Rather, they would remember that “the Democrats and President Obama killed a critical bill, and thus left unemployed Americans helpless while raising taxes on the rest of us.” So, the Democrats held up the 2012 budget through political means, threatening to shut down the government and probably incite a sovereign rating downgrade, “because the Republicans went home for the holidays and left the nation’s business undone.”

One thing remains clear. The nation’s capitol is still disjointed and has not learned the lesson it should have by the hands of Standard & Poor’s (NYSE: MHP). We cannot afford to leave our fate now in the hands of Fitch or Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), who with S&P, have the power to drive paradigm shift in global confidence in American treasuries and the dollar. It’s about time the rhetoric ended in Washington and our elected representatives quit the political games and got some important work done. Break these bills apart and vote on them individually as they deserve, or at least resolve to form a best fit and get Americans what they need now. Remember, first do no harm!

Please share your opinion via the comment tab below. And let’s have some fun: please use this opportunity to guess who I favor for President in 2012.

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Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

geopolitical

Senin, 19 September 2011

Taxes and the Deficit Seed of Corruption

seed of corruptionThe President presented his plan to trim the deficit Monday, and inspired this article in the process. President Obama has been attempting to find revenues for the nation’s balance budgeting effort, and the easy score would be from taxes, or rather the killing of “temporary” tax breaks for higher earning Americans. Those are the so-called Bush tax cuts, which accompanied the silly $300 checks the short-sighted economic crash test dummies in DC cooked up before President Bush left office.

political analystOur founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Taxes and the Deficit Seed of Corruption



Relative tickers include NYSE: XOM, NYSE: CVX, NYSE: COP, NYSE: HAL, NYSE: AET, NYSE: NBR, NYSE: NE, NYSE: RIG, NYSE: BHI, NYSE: MCO, NYSE: MHP, NYSE: MRK, NYSE: PFE, NYSE: UNH, NYSE: WLP, NYSE: CAH, NYSE: MHS, NYSE: HUM, NYSE: GSK, NYSE: BMY, Nasdaq: ESRX, NYSE: WPO, NYSE: NYT, NYSE: BRK-A, NYSE: BRK-B.

You’ll recall that those tax cuts were supposed to last for just a short time, but Republicans are saying they are still needed. Democrats have determined that they have hardly been useful to date, and that higher earning Americans can afford to help the nation balance its budget by simply going back to old standard rates. The typical Republican rebuttal to this is that these taxes also impact small businessmen and kill hiring. In his latest proposal, the President shown light on this debate, discussing the so-called “class warfare” commentary his revenue targeting has inspired. But the President notes the uber-wealthy have tax savvy (read expensive accountants), which leads to effective tax rates that are often less than the menial staff they employ. Famed billionaire and Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) Warren Buffet verified this argument in his disclosure that his secretary has a higher effective tax rate than he does (NYSE: BRK-A).

I’m on the President’s side on this one. I agree that it makes more sense for the richest Americans to support the budget balancing effort than it does for social security-check dependent senior citizens to. It is certainly not a black and white issue, though, and contributions can be found elsewhere, bit by bit, including from killing unnecessary and purported unethical projects like abortion support. But, I also want to see the oil companies like Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) lose their unnecessary and unethical subsidies. If you are going to call for doing what’s right, like the president did today and like his opponents will rebut, then do what’s right.

However, keep in mind that the more items included in any legislation, only increase the difficulty in getting its passage. And the two items just mentioned, and always reported by the popular press, offer only a tiny real capital raising opportunity. For this reason, it seems clear entitlements cannot go completely unharmed. But the harm can be limited and targeted in ways that might even make more sense for today’s world. However, the President (and I) cannot justify current tax rates for higher earning Americans while snipping away at welfare and social security, especially in times like these!

Let’s see compromise and comprehensive spending reform, but while avoiding damage to economic growth and without putting our seniors on the street. It’s a challenging task, but somehow, I suspect there’s enough fat in that budget to allow for it. We can find a way to keep the effort from impacting small businessmen operating on the fringe; it would only take a little creative thought and design. Once a Reagan Republican, I’m not a fan of taxes, but let’s call a spade a spade. If you want to balance the budget at a time when the economy needs support, something I said very clearly we shouldn’t do time and again, then we have to look at this honestly. Now that we’ve given Standard & Poor’s (NYSE: MHP) the seed of corruption to play with, we have to find the monies to pay with.

The broader indexes were lower before the President spoke and are down sharply at this hour, with the Dow off 1.6%. Still, energy and health care, which would be more sensitive to the President’s speech, are down a bit more:

Relative Stocks

Monday’s % Change

(Prices measured at 2:10 PM ET)

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)

-2.4%

Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

-2.3%

Halliburton (NYSE: HAL)

-4.0%

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)

-2.0%

Transocean (NYSE: RIG)

-2.7%

Noble (NYSE: NE)

-3.1%

Nabors (NYSE: NBR)

-6.0%

Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI)

-3.3%

Aetna (NYSE: AET)

-1.5%

Moody’s (NYSE: MCO)

-1.3%

McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP)

-0.7%

Merck (NYSE: MRK)

-2.2%

Pfizer (NYSE: PFE)

-0.9%

MedcoHealth (NYSE: MHS)

-0.3%

Humana (NYSE: HUM)

-0.8%

Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH)

-0.7%

GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK)

-0.5%

Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY)

+0.2%

UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH)

-1.9%

WellPoint (NYSE: WLP)

-1.9%

Express Scripts (Nasdaq: ESRX)

-0.3%

Washington Post (NYSE: WPO)

-2.7%

New York Times (NYSE: NYT)

-4.8%


Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

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