Romney's Iowa Performance Primes Stocks for Gains

Wednesday’s market movement should be significantly driven by the Iowa Caucus results, and given Mitt Romney’s lead in New Hampshire, the stock market has solid support from politics over the near-term.

If the tally in Iowa were to show an electable, presidential and most importantly, a Wall Street favorite as Iowa’s winner, the market should rally. Thus, the shortfall of Ron Paul, not a likely Wall Street favorite given his views on the Federal Reserve, should find approval from the market. Furthermore, the strong performance of Mitt Romney should start stocks higher on Wednesday. That’s if investors understand the fact that Romney’s position on how to handle “Obamacare” is the one that is most likely to supplant it, given possible Supreme Court cohesion.

Rick Santorum has a chance to perform decently through the national primary process and his speech Tuesday night was moving, but it appears Romney has a better chance in the general election. Look for stocks to support the GOP direction, if the Street gets Romney’s wise health care strategy.

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Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Today’s Republican Disconnect with America

I sat up late the other night watching the C-SPAN coverage of the House of Representatives debate on the payroll tax break and unemployment benefit extensions. I was appalled by the Republican positions, and the recurring tone I keep hearing from the party I use to call my own and whose conservative values I continue to agree with. I’m now an independent due to the perversions that have eroded each party’s core message. Economically speaking, I see neither current version of the Republican nor Democratic Party as holding the perfect cure to what ails us. While another article might discuss my concern with the Democratic Party’s embrace and promotion of immoral practices for the sake of personal liberation, this article is focused on the Republican disconnect with America or the great poverty stricken segment of America. This broken rail was once again evidenced in the latest legislative lunacy.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Today's Republican Disconnect with America

In case you’ve been caught up in holiday shopping or catching up with work before your holiday vacation, our Congress is currently entangled in a messy legislative debate over the future of the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance benefits. Basically, last year’s program extensions need to be renewed again this year, or those temporary benefits will expire. If that happens, Americans will face new burdens at a still vulnerable time for our economy.

The Payroll Tax break against Social Security payments would lift that rate back up to 6.2% from its current 4.2% break rate. Your shock is well-founded, as those tax cuts are shorting the same Social Security program that is already handicapped if not doomed. And yes, we are underfunding it even worse than usual today as part of an effort to stimulate spending and the economy. There is, however, a new budget-minded focus within Congress that is seeking ways to fund these cuts. For instance, the savings from the Iraq troop withdrawal have been put forth as one potential source. The Democrats would like to bank those savings against the budget deficit and instead institute a new surtax on those Americans with incomes of more than $1 million. As you may have guessed, the Republican Party opposes any tax increase, even if it be upon those who can afford to offer a helping hand now.

This legislative issue weighs for Americans who are already earning a steady income, though it is surely critical to part-timers with a shortage of fund flows. Another issue at hand could more significantly affect America, as it supports Americans who have no other source of income currently. It is what keeps people housed and from committing crimes of necessity; it is what keeps hope alive.

Unemployment benefits have proven inadequate for the massive pool of long-term unemployed Americans displaced by this deep economic recession and sluggish follow through. With the unemployment rate last listed at 8.6%, though arguably closer to 8.8%, given the drop in workforce count in November, it is clearly not yet time to cut off the unemployment benefit extension program (which takes insured unemployment to 99 weeks). The House Republicans are seeking to pass legislation that will ease coverage to 59 weeks after January 1. Of course, the percentage level of the unemployed more importantly represents about 13.3 million Americans, not including the disenchanted and desperate. Furthermore, the Republican version of aid would reportedly leave more than 3 million Americans high and dry immediately, with no other source of income to make mortgage or rent payments, or basically to survive.

Believe it or not, that’s not where the disconnect ends. You see, Republicans also want to make it harder for those people, who would still qualify, to qualify for unemployment insurance benefits. This obstacle to the critical aid that pays the rent for many who are jobless through little fault of their own would present itself via mandatory drug tests. The argument posed on the floor of the House for this was “to ensure benefit recipients are employable,” because if they are on drugs then they are likely to lose their next job. In other words, they are deemed to have a more important problem that should be addressed first, before our fellow Americans are awarded the insurance benefits they paid for through regular cuts from their weekly pay checks. Don’t forget that we pay directly for unemployment insurance; it’s not an unfunded social program. Next, I suppose, Republicans would ask seniors to pass a drug test to determine whether they should receive their hard-earned social security checks. This is obscene!

However, that’s still not where the lunacy ends. The bill passed by House Republicans, which was doomed to fail in the Senate or by the President’s pen, also calls for the building of the Keystone XL Pipeline, which, oh by the way, I support. As you might have guessed though, that was not in last year’s legislation. Rather, it’s the effort of the GOP to stick an energy action into an employment bill under the premise that it is a job creator. Clearly, the construction of a pipeline would create jobs, whether the tens of thousands or the 100K to 280K long-term total touted by some in the Republican Party, or about 20,000 or so that is more likely immediately. But it is misplaced within this bill. In fact, each particle of this legislation should be independent of one another, for the purpose of clarity and the sake of the American people.

The President and the Democrats were terrified that the House Republicans would pass this bill and then leave town (before the Senate could pass its own version), thus leaving the onus of unemployment benefits on the shoulders of the President and his party. Americans wouldn’t remember the pipeline or the drug test if the Senate voted the bill down or if the President vetoed it as promised. Rather, they would remember that “the Democrats and President Obama killed a critical bill, and thus left unemployed Americans helpless while raising taxes on the rest of us.” So, the Democrats held up the 2012 budget through political means, threatening to shut down the government and probably incite a sovereign rating downgrade, “because the Republicans went home for the holidays and left the nation’s business undone.”

One thing remains clear. The nation’s capitol is still disjointed and has not learned the lesson it should have by the hands of Standard & Poor’s (NYSE: MHP). We cannot afford to leave our fate now in the hands of Fitch or Moody’s (NYSE: MCO), who with S&P, have the power to drive paradigm shift in global confidence in American treasuries and the dollar. It’s about time the rhetoric ended in Washington and our elected representatives quit the political games and got some important work done. Break these bills apart and vote on them individually as they deserve, or at least resolve to form a best fit and get Americans what they need now. Remember, first do no harm!

Please share your opinion via the comment tab below. And let’s have some fun: please use this opportunity to guess who I favor for President in 2012.

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Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Papademos on a Stick

It seems Greeks are coming to grips with the reality that their new leader, Lucas Papademos, may offer a different face to watch on television, but he comes with even stauncher support of the troika’s austerity medicine than the embattled George Papandreou. Indeed, the European Union’s man and once #2 at the European Central Bank (ECB) has openly stated that exit from the euro zone is not an option. Well, Greeks are learning that this means the austerity forced down their throats is also not clearing out. So, it seems, it may not be long before the popular support for Papademos turns out to actually be a sort of marinade.

Our founder Markos Kaminis earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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A Political Sacrificial Lamb

Political jockeying ahead of a likely February election has Greece’s new Prime Minister, Lucas Papademos, being held out on a stick like a souvlaki cooking over the fires of Greek rioters, the IMF and Greece’s European brothers. Papandreou’s referendum concession was either a show of pure stupidity, unequivocal ethical heart or political genius. From the political perspective, Papandreou’s calling on the Greek people to decide whether to go forth with the European plan, and thus accept austerity and also ongoing euro zone membership, forced Greeks to take a second look at the situation and also at the PASOK Party. His stepping back has placed PASOK into a position that allows for potential reconciliation come election time.

New Democracy, not missing a beat and with its eye on February, has been publicly promoting an idea to ditch the digging austerity plan and to instead take a sort of American Republican approach to promote economic growth and trust in trickle-down economics; though the Greek version might look more like Chios mastic’s slow and painful ooze down a dry bark. The other, more radical parties are of course offering more radical solutions.

Needless to say, the political commotion has the troika terrified that tranches of capital dished out to Greece between now and February might end up wasted, sort of like how Zorbas spent his boss’ supply money on drink and women. So the IMF is refusing to dole out any more funds before a pledge is signed by the major political parties, if not all of them, to keep on the path outlined. That path, for Greeks, has been relayed as including the implementation of all already passed austerity measures, but the introduction of no new burden upon them.

So, it would seem Papademos is cooking like a souvlaki on a stick, and it would appear Greeks will have their kabob well done by February. The current popular support of him is thus near certain to turn to a lynching party, with the technocrat set to burn at the stake. Both New Democracy and PASOK are more than willing to step away now to allow the Greeks to pepper up Papademos, get their fill of him, and offer sweet dessert to them in February. But the sugar for that dessert must be acquired now from German and French patisseries.

The lesson long forgotten but to be learned anew is for governments across the globe. The lost wisdom is that the mismanagement of the people’s money results in uprising. The people will turn everything upside down and start all over again before they will bear the pain for the mistakes of faulty leadership.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Taxes and the Deficit Seed of Corruption

The President presented his plan to trim the deficit Monday, and inspired this article in the process. President Obama has been attempting to find revenues for the nation’s balance budgeting effort, and the easy score would be from taxes, or rather the killing of “temporary” tax breaks for higher earning Americans. Those are the so-called Bush tax cuts, which accompanied the silly $300 checks the short-sighted economic crash test dummies in DC cooked up before President Bush left office.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Taxes and the Deficit Seed of Corruption

Relative tickers include NYSE: XOM, NYSE: CVX, NYSE: COP, NYSE: HAL, NYSE: AET, NYSE: NBR, NYSE: NE, NYSE: RIG, NYSE: BHI, NYSE: MCO, NYSE: MHP, NYSE: MRK, NYSE: PFE, NYSE: UNH, NYSE: WLP, NYSE: CAH, NYSE: MHS, NYSE: HUM, NYSE: GSK, NYSE: BMY, Nasdaq: ESRX, NYSE: WPO, NYSE: NYT, NYSE: BRK-A, NYSE: BRK-B.

You’ll recall that those tax cuts were supposed to last for just a short time, but Republicans are saying they are still needed. Democrats have determined that they have hardly been useful to date, and that higher earning Americans can afford to help the nation balance its budget by simply going back to old standard rates. The typical Republican rebuttal to this is that these taxes also impact small businessmen and kill hiring. In his latest proposal, the President shown light on this debate, discussing the so-called “class warfare” commentary his revenue targeting has inspired. But the President notes the uber-wealthy have tax savvy (read expensive accountants), which leads to effective tax rates that are often less than the menial staff they employ. Famed billionaire and Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) Warren Buffet verified this argument in his disclosure that his secretary has a higher effective tax rate than he does (NYSE: BRK-A).

I’m on the President’s side on this one. I agree that it makes more sense for the richest Americans to support the budget balancing effort than it does for social security-check dependent senior citizens to. It is certainly not a black and white issue, though, and contributions can be found elsewhere, bit by bit, including from killing unnecessary and purported unethical projects like abortion support. But, I also want to see the oil companies like Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) lose their unnecessary and unethical subsidies. If you are going to call for doing what’s right, like the president did today and like his opponents will rebut, then do what’s right.

However, keep in mind that the more items included in any legislation, only increase the difficulty in getting its passage. And the two items just mentioned, and always reported by the popular press, offer only a tiny real capital raising opportunity. For this reason, it seems clear entitlements cannot go completely unharmed. But the harm can be limited and targeted in ways that might even make more sense for today’s world. However, the President (and I) cannot justify current tax rates for higher earning Americans while snipping away at welfare and social security, especially in times like these!

Let’s see compromise and comprehensive spending reform, but while avoiding damage to economic growth and without putting our seniors on the street. It’s a challenging task, but somehow, I suspect there’s enough fat in that budget to allow for it. We can find a way to keep the effort from impacting small businessmen operating on the fringe; it would only take a little creative thought and design. Once a Reagan Republican, I’m not a fan of taxes, but let’s call a spade a spade. If you want to balance the budget at a time when the economy needs support, something I said very clearly we shouldn’t do time and again, then we have to look at this honestly. Now that we’ve given Standard & Poor’s (NYSE: MHP) the seed of corruption to play with, we have to find the monies to pay with.

The broader indexes were lower before the President spoke and are down sharply at this hour, with the Dow off 1.6%. Still, energy and health care, which would be more sensitive to the President’s speech, are down a bit more:

Relative Stocks	Monday’s % Change
(Prices measured at 2:10 PM ET)
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)	-2.4%
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)	-2.3%
Halliburton (NYSE: HAL)	-4.0%
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)	-2.0%
Transocean (NYSE: RIG)	-2.7%
Noble (NYSE: NE)	-3.1%
Nabors (NYSE: NBR)	-6.0%
Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI)	-3.3%
Aetna (NYSE: AET)	-1.5%
Moody’s (NYSE: MCO)	-1.3%
McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP)	-0.7%
Merck (NYSE: MRK)	-2.2%
Pfizer (NYSE: PFE)	-0.9%
MedcoHealth (NYSE: MHS)	-0.3%
Humana (NYSE: HUM)	-0.8%
Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH)	-0.7%
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK)	-0.5%
Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY)	+0.2%
UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH)	-1.9%
WellPoint (NYSE: WLP)	-1.9%
Express Scripts (Nasdaq: ESRX)	-0.3%
Washington Post (NYSE: WPO)	-2.7%
New York Times (NYSE: NYT)	-4.8%

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Bad Moon Rising in Labor and Economy

There’s a bad moon rising, as seen in the weekly jobs data from the Department of Labor (DOL). Weeks ago, we warned that this economic metric might this time be a leading indicator of recession in such a sensitive labor environment, which characterizes the day. Unfortunately, the latest data seems to support our concerns. And, the number of folks receiving benefits is on the decline nonetheless, making for a bad moon rising of potential civil concern. If politicians continue to prioritize selfish individual and party goals, and do not change the tone of politics to one of unity and progression for the nation’s sake, they risk sending this crisis into a new and more dangerous phase. Mark my words, and do all you can to prevent it, or the images we see of Greek street fires could emanate in the future from Detroit and LA.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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Bad Moon Rising in Labor and Economy

The DOL reported Weekly Jobless Claims for the week ending September 10 increased by 11,000, to 428K. Last week’s data was even revised higher, to 417K, from 414K. As usual, economists held close to the prior week result in their forecasting for this week, and so a consensus estimate of 412K was off. The trend is clear here now, with the four-week moving average up to 419,500, up 4K this week alone.

As in previous data, the number of insured unemployed decreases more often than it rises of late. In my estimation, this is not the result of improving employment, but because of other issues. Firstly, the long-term unemployed are outlasting their extended unemployment insurance benefits. Secondly, red tape and tight regulation at the street level are likely leading struggling Americans to fall out of qualification for the benefits they are so dependent upon. The government even dares to audit these people and ask for money back, while keeping tax breaks for the richest Americans in place. And thirdly, some folks are finding whatever work they can and leaving their only slightly less valuable benefits behind. My ventures into Harlem and my work with the poor have shown these things to be true.

The insured unemployment rate stuck at 3.0% this last week, but the number decreased by 12K. Of those people receiving a benefit of some sort, including unemployment insurance extensions, the number fell by 25,033, to 7.1 million Americans in the August 27 period. On the surface, this looks like good news, but we know better.

Extended benefits were still available in Alabama, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending August 27. However, how many Americans are nearing their week limit for this long-standing, foreclosure mitigating, welfare preventing, homelessness negating and civil unrest halting assistance?

If we do not either get these long-term unemployed Americans back to work, or keep the money flowing to them, we face increasing likelihood of civil unrest, especially heading into the election season. The unsettling events that are occurring overseas in nations with higher unemployment and longer sitting indigestion, are nearing the realm of possibility in the U.S. as well now. Distaste for Washington is mutating into pure hatred, and what has happened on the fringe, acts of “insanity” by unstable individuals, could then become possible for stable but financially troubled people.

We need to cure this thing today, and politics must change tone to a more progressive message of national unity. Otherwise, the directional and polarizing messages of political parties will incense acts of desperation and push chaos to replace civility in our great nation. Any politician with a true love for his country would prioritize his country now. The tone of political debate must remain civil and the language must be responsibly chosen. Recent words by good men, but poorly chosen, like from union leader James Hoffa over Labor Day, not to mention fringe Tea Party fire-starters, are dangerous. Making a political point is one thing, but telling crowds to “take out” Tea Party “sons of bitches,” as Hoffa did, can start riots. We do not need that spark to kindle the dry wood of dissatisfaction stacked high across America.

As always, I like to provide readers with the data from the most troubled states:

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending August 27 were in Puerto Rico (4.4), Pennsylvania (4.2), New Jersey (4.0), California (3.7), Connecticut (3.7), Oregon (3.5), Rhode Island (3.5), Nevada (3.4), Alaska (3.3),and New York (3.2).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 3 were in Kansas (+1,969), North Carolina (+1,450), Washington (+1,443), New Jersey (+1,324), and Texas (+1,239) while the largest decreases were in New York (-2,854), South Carolina (-2,118), Puerto Rico (-1,611), California (-576), and Virginia (-216).

The stocks of employment relative firms and business services are generally higher today due to their sensitivity to the economy, and given the positive news out of Europe, which has the Dow also higher by 1.6%.

Movement of Labor & Business Services Stocks
Robert Half (NYSE: RHI)	2.1%
Korn Ferry (NYSE: KFY)	1.5%
Monster Worldwide (NYSE: MWW)	2.1%
Manpower (NYSE: MAN)	3.5%
51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS)	2.1%
Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX)	3.0%
Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC)	Unch.
TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI)	1.3%
Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX)	4.4%
Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA)	1.7%
CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI)	-0.6%
Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN)	3.7%
On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN)	1.1%
AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS)	1.4%
Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI)	1.4%
Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP)	2.0%
StarTek (NYSE: SRT)	0.6%
RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT)	1.7%
VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP)	-0.8%
American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB)	Unch.
Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB)	Unch.
iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB)	Unch.
St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB)	-8.9%
General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB)	-6.9%
Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB)	Unch.
TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF)	0.5%
Stratum (OTC: STTH.PK)	Unch.
Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB)	Unch.
Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB)	29%
Prices at approximately 3:00 PM EDT

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Look to Government Now for Guidance

New Home Sales data were reported for July this week, and while the news was not much different than in the recent past, it received a good bit of attention nonetheless. The reason for the attention was a 0.7% decrease in the annual pace of sales from June through July. With a coinciding monthly decline in the pace of Existing Home Sales, a much more important market, concern is brewing about a new stumble for housing. While every forecast I’ve made has been qualified against the possibility of economic deterioration that appears to be developing in America and abroad, I still think too much is being made of the July New Home Sales data. Instead, both stock market and real estate investors would be better served looking to the economy, and at this point, especially to economic reinforcement efforts for guidance, as consumers and investors are suffering today from cold feet and uncertainty. If not cured quickly, I see a self-fulfilling prophecy taking us into recession.



Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.



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Look to Government Now for Guidance

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that the annual pace of New Home Sales slipped to 298K in July, down from 300K in June. Neither enthusing, June’s sales pace was revised down to 300K, from an initially reported rate of 312K. Thus, the monthly decline felt more like a 4.5% drop.



Real estate enthusiasts should not lose site of the fact that this July’s 298K sales pace remained 6.8% above last July’s pace of 279K. Some will say that last year’s activity came in the absence of the just expired First-Time Homebuyer Tax Incentive, and so was especially soft. They’ll point to this as the driver of the year-over-year growth in Existing Home Sales as well last month, which conflicted with the month-over-month slippage. They will be partly correct in saying so, but I continue to see a solid plateau here for housing, with one significant risk. Barring a jarring economic catalyst (read recession), which is at least 50% likely now, home prices and sales levels have a natural floor under them, in my view.



August will again offer an easy year-over-year comparable for New Home Sales, this time 278K, but September’s sales reached 316K last year. Though, October and November brought lower rates of 282K and 287K, respectively. So, the next few months will show us clearly where we stand in housing, as unnatural, synthetic catalysts will be clear of the equation. But new home sales data is not yet the place to look for real estate recovery, due to the burden of the inventory of distressed properties that abound and the relative value found in the existing home market.



One thing real estate investors should keep in mind is that the worse the economy gets, or more favorable to the general situation, the worse it is perceived to be, the better housing affordability becomes. Mortgage rates touched a record low during the latest market upheaval. Of course, recession is a net negative for housing, as unemployment would likely increase, average incomes would decrease, and the ability of consumers to spend would be limited. Consumers have already stopped spending, based on my observations, and so a self-fulfilling prophecy may play out, bringing recession and all its nastiness.



As far as last month’s New Home data went, much was made of the decrease in the median home price for homes sold through the period. The median price fell 6.3%, to $222K, from $236,800 in June. But, the average price of a new home sale actually rose a bit to 272,300, from 272K in June. Very few homes are for sale now, and so homebuilders are not so much pressured to unload inventory for the sake of managing a debt burden as perhaps they had been in past years. Even as the sales pace declined last month, months’ inventory stuck at 6.6 in July. That’s an indicator of the conservatism of builders now, and also the bare bottom levels of activity we reside within. The actual number of homes for sale declined to 165K in July, from 166K in June.



In conclusion, I believe too much was made of the decline in New Home Sales, mainly due to a dearth of other economic data on the day of its release. And, the new home arena is not the place to look for guidance anyway. Keep your eyes instead focused on the economy, and hopefully new catalysts from the fiscal end within President Obama’s upcoming game plan, and also on the monetary side within Ben Bernanke’s upcoming speech. The market is now starving for hope, and great pains have already been born. However, if consumer and investor confidence are not supported and fueled, our economy is destined for recession and our real estate marketplace is set to find a lower plateau.



Editor's Note: Article should interest investors in Investors Title (Nasdaq: ITIC), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC.OB), Fannie Mae (OTC: FNMA.OB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Toronto Dominion (NYSE: TD), UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: SRS), Ultra Real Estate ProShares (NYSE: URE), ING Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund (NYSE: IGR), Xinyuan Real Estate Co. (NYSE: XIN), Rydex Real Estate Fund H (Nasdaq: RYHRX), T. Rowe Price Real Estate Fund (Nasdaq: TRREX), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI), Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH), Lennar (NYSE: LEN), K.B. Homes (NYSE: KBH), Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM), NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR), Gafisa SA (NYSE: GFA), MDC Holdings (NYSE: MDC), Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL), Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH), Brookfield Homes (NYSE: BHS), Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF), M/I Homes (NYSE: MHO), Orleans Homebuilders (AMEX: OHB), Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSE: VNQ), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Hooker Furniture (Nasdaq: HOFT), Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH), Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR), Williams Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Lowes (NYSE: LOW), Nasdaq: XNFZX, Nasdaq: FSAZX, Avatar Holdings (Nasdaq: AVTR), Apartment Investment & Management (NYSE: AIV), Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR), Avalonbay Communities (NYSE: AVB), UDR Inc. (NYSE: UDR), Essex Property Trust (NYSE: ESS), Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT), Senior Housing Properties (NYSE: SNH), BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE), Home Properties (NYSE: HME), Mid-America Apartment (NYSE: MAA), Equity Lifestyle Properties (NYSE: ELS), American Campus Communities (NYSE: ACC), Colonial Properties (NYSE: CLP), American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC), Sun Communities (NYSE: SUI), Associated Estates (NYSE: AEC), PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE: PMT), Two Harbors (AMEX: TWO), Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), State Street (NYSE: STT), Janus (NYSE: JNS), T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM).



Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Is it Communist to Care About Your Neighbor More than Profits?

I suppose many were sighing in relief Thursday when Weekly Jobless Claims did not deteriorate, given the recent economic, consumer and layoff data seemingly pointing toward that result. However, with the claims count stuck in the mud at 400K, it offers no indication of employer hiring for the near-term either. Finally, I wonder how you feel about my argument concluding this report, and whether you think it makes you a communist to care about your neighbor more than profits.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative Tickers: NYSE: RHI, NYSE: KFY, NYSE: MAN, NYSE: MWW, Nasdaq: KELYA, Nasdaq: JOBS, NYSE: JOB, Nasdaq: CECO, Nasdaq: PAYX, NYSE: ASF, Nasdaq: KFRC, NYSE: TBI, NYSE: DHX, NYSE: SFN, NYSE: CDI, Nasdaq: CCRN, Nasdaq: ASGN, NYSE: AHS, Nasdaq: BBSI, Nasdaq: HHGP, NYSE: SRT, Nasdaq: RCMT, Nasdaq: VSCP, OTC: ASRG.OB, OTC: MCTH.OB, OTC: IGEN.OB, OTC: STJO.OB, OTC: TNUS.OB, Nasdaq: TSTF, OTC: STTH.OB, OTC: PSRU.OB, OTC: CRRS.OB, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: GS, NYSE: C, NYSE: MS, NYSE: WFC, NYSE: TD, NYSE: PNC, NYSE: GE, NYSE: WMT, NYSE: MCD, NYSE: AA, NYSE: AXP, NYSE: BA, NYSE: CAT, Nasdaq: CSCO, NYSE: CVX, NYSE: DD, NYSE: DIS, NYSE: HD, NYSE: HPQ, NYSE: IBM, Nasdaq: INTC, NYSE: JNJ, NYSE: KFT, NYSE: KO, NYSE: MMM, NYSE: MRK, Nasdaq: MSFT, NYSE: PFE, NYSE: PG, NYSE: T, NYSE: TRV, NYSE: UTX, NYSE: VZ, NYSE: XOM, NYSE: DE, NYSE: TIF, NYSE: CO, NYSE: FRO, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ

Is it Communist to Care About Your Neighbor More than Profits?

The Department of Labor reported Weekly Jobless Claims for the period ending July 30, 2011, and while the data was kind enough to stink about the same as usual (and not worse), it neither offered any sign of future labor market improvement ahead of the government’s monthly employment report.

Unemployment insurance claims were measured at 400K in the period, 1,000 less than the prior week’s revised rate (up 3,000). The four-week moving average improved by 6,750, but remained in troubling territory at 407,750. Insured unemployment for the period ending July 23rd stuck at 3.0%, with the total number up 10K to 3,730,000. The tally of Americans receiving some form of unemployment benefit, including the unemployment insurance extension program, improved by about 75K in the period ending July 16th.

You get the picture: there was no real improvement this week, and neither has there been the kind of gains reflective of stable economic recovery as yet. America’s businesses have determined to squeeze as much profit as they can out of the employees they have, given the uncertain global economic environment. Finally, our great productivity derived from wonderful technological gains and the wisdom of the Ivy League consultancies is working against us. And the jobs we do create are too often overseas, where it’s much easier and cheaper to hire a local guy than to move some little town lug to Shanghai.

And even as business improved through last year, we barely noticed the gains in the real count of the unemployed and underemployed. Rather, our corporate managers are geared toward beating EPS estimates, raising dividends and return on equity, not the employment of our neighbors. I’ve got a problem with that, and I don’t think that makes me a Communist. Our government should be finding ways to inspire corporations to hire some of the guys who have been on the street for more than two years, like maybe reminding some of the lucky hiring managers who have kept their jobs what it’s like to eat a potato for dinner. We’ll be better for it, whatever the return on investment is.

We Like to Share the State Data with Our Readers:

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 16 were in Puerto Rico (5.0), Pennsylvania (4.5), California (4.0), New Jersey (4.0), Alaska (3.9) Oregon (3.9), Connecticut (3.8), Rhode Island (3.8), Nevada (3.7) and Arizona (3.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 23 were in Maine (+77), Wyoming (+34), North Dakota (+30), New Mexico (+13), and South Dakota (+3) while the largest decreases were in California (-23,689), New York (-8,037), North Carolina (-7,511), Georgia (-6,399), and South Carolina (-5,837).



Article should interest investors in Paychex (Nasdaq: PAYX), Manpower (NYSE: MAN), Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI), 51Job Inc. (Nasdaq: JOBS), Monster World Wide (NYSE: MWW), Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), Administaff (NYSE: ASF), Kforce (Nasdaq: KFRC), TrueBlue (NYSE: TBI), Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX), Kelly Services (Nasdaq: KELYA), SFN Group (NYSE: SFN), CDI Corp. (NYSE: CDI), Cross Country Healthcare (Nasdaq: CCRN), On Assignment (Nasdaq: ASGN), AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE: AHS), Barrett Business Services (Nasdaq: BBSI), Hudson Highland Group (Nasdaq: HHGP), StarTek (NYSE: SRT), RCM Technologies (Nasdaq: RCMT), VirtualScopics (Nasdaq: VSCP), American Surgical (OTC: ASRG.OB), Medical Connections (OTC: MCTH.OB), iGen Networks (OTC: IGEN.OB), St. Joseph (OTC: STJO.OB), General Employment Enterprises (NYSE: JOB), Total Neutraceutical (OTC: TNUS.OB), TeamStaff (Nasdaq: TSTF), Stratum (OTC: STTH.OB), Purespectrum (OTC: PSRU.OB), Corporate Resource Services (OTC: CRRS.OB), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), TD Bank (NYSE: TD), PNC Bank (NYSE: PNC), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), AT&T (NYSE: T), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.