The Greece Iran Oil Connection

As the west prepares a steep set of sanctions geared to stifle Iran, Greece raises an important query. The debt laden Hellenes would like to know what will happen to their vulnerable economy if the nation’s preferable Iranian oil supply contracts are replaced with more costly sources? Furthermore, if its GDP is impacted as a result of the untimely action, causing it to fall short of qualifying thresholds for its foreign funding, would that be overlooked by its critical debt holders?

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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The Greece Iran Oil Connection

It’s a fair question for Greece to ask with its economic growth already under drag by the austerity demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its European brothers. Greece sourced a significant 14% of its imported oil from Iran in the first half of 2011, and has sourced up to 23% of its oil imports from its ancient counterpart at times. According to a Bloomberg article quoting an anonymous Greek diplomat, Greece wants to ensure that if that oil is replaced, it will receive identical terms, which exclude financial guarantees.

Under normal circumstances, such a condition would not even be considered, but while Greece is under the economic microscope of the IMF, it wants to avoid new obstacles to reaching already challenging goals set by its lenders of last resort. Thus, last week, Greece held up the EU’s sanctions which would stop the flow of Iranian oil to the region. Agitated European officials have indicated that assurances will be made to Greece, but that the details will be worked out after this week’s agreement on sanctions is in place. It’s unclear whether such hastily made promises will be adequate for Greek politicians who cannot afford to place a single new burden on the shoulders of Greece’s aggravated populace.

Given Greece’s poor credibility, it is unlikely to find better terms on the open market than it gets from its likewise desperate Iranian trading partner. So, the question posed to Europe is, will it subsidize the difference in cost to Greece? Otherwise, some leeway must be given Greece, with regard to the steep economic goals it’s been forced to set.

What we are seeing in this latest situation is similar to the chaos that ensued when the former Greek Prime Minister proposed a referendum for the Greek people to decide for themselves whether their future would be with or without the euro currency. It shows that Europe is no stronger than its weakest link, and that the Greeks have more bargaining leverage than most understand. Finally, Greek politicians seem to be realizing that Europe needs Greece to stay solvent as much as Greece needs its financial assistance. Clearly, the most obvious concern to Europe is how a disorderly disposition of Greece would reel Portuguese, Spanish and Italian debt markets.

The current situation also highlights the important position Iran holds in the stability of the already shaky global marketplace. As the U.S. and Europe gear to pressure the Iranians, the question raised by Greece presents Iran with interesting information. Every plan to cut off Iranian oil is civil and arranged to ease the process, but the situation is not civil, if it is not economic warfare. So I have a question: What if the Iranians were to realize the plan set for them and understand their current position. They might just do the unexpected and cut off their own oil flow abruptly, and so, disruptively to Greece, Europe and the civilized world. Perhaps Greece’s negotiations with the EU in this regard should have been kept in closed quarters.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

WARNING - Europe is Already Costing the U.S. Economy

What is vague is often ignored, and what is possible is sometimes given no weighting by investors, instead overlooked for what is most tangible and certain today. In this regard, so has the threat of European impact to the U.S. economy proven impotent to U.S. stock direction through late 2011 and so far in 2012. However, there exists tangible impact to the U.S. economy that is directly attributable to the nascent trouble in Europe. I suggest investors take note as well, since the impacts should only grow more obvious with time, with their effects eventually burdening U.S. GDP, and finally given credit in the valuation of American stocks.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

EU Hurting U.S. Economy

The evidence I point to, which shows the impact of European weakness on the U.S. economy, has come in two forms of late. We’ve seen it in the latest trade data and also in the actions of European companies operating in the U.S. Those actions have included the consolidation of American operations or other reorganization, and the laying off of American workers. That contribution to an already laboring labor market should be felt and understood for its seriousness.

The direct impact, though, is more clearly seen in the latest international trade data, reported last week for the month of November. The U.S. international trade deficit widened by 10.4%, to $47.8 billion, which was far more than economists surveyed by Bloomberg foresaw (consensus -$45 billion). While November imports were $2.9 billion higher, reflective of high season demand perhaps, exports were lower by $1.5 billion. That drop in exports was mostly attributable to goods, as the change in service exports was virtually unchanged. The decrease also countered the year-over-year trend, which showed exports up 10.3% from November of 2010. Certainly, Europe has endured a good deal of pain over the course of those twelve months, and it may be starting to cost U.S. exporters today.

According to the Department of Commerce, the decrease in exports was mostly seen in lower industrial supplies and materials demand ($1.6 billion); and also in capital goods ($0.2 billion) and other areas. That drop in industrial goods demand was counter to the year-over-year trend as well. Somewhat surprisingly, and perhaps contradicting this report, an increase of $0.8 billion occurred in consumer goods exports. Though, this could have been due to seasonal driver.

The most telling of the data came when comparing the month’s trends between Europe and China. While the trade deficit with China narrowed to $26.9 billion, from $28.1 billion in October, the deficit with the European Union widened to $9.7 billion, from $8.0 billion in October. It was the most marked increase in deficit among America’s trading partners.

While what we’ve just discussed is direct and clear, what is developing anecdotally is concerning due to its concealed nature. It thus has the ability of sneaking up on economists and strategists who may not be paying the closest of attention to peripheral information. Therefore, it could bite analysts, brokers and finally retail investors in the behind. Take note that my followers will not be found within that grouping.

While authoring my report on the Ugly Truth About the Economy, I took note of the number of announced corporate layoffs coming from European based firms over a very short recent time span. It was difficult not to notice given my bead on the newswire. Since the turn of the year, we’ve seen American worker layoffs by European based firms: Novartis (NYSE: NVS), Vestas Wind Systems (OTC: VWSYF.PK), RBS (NYSE: RBS), Delhaize (NYSE: DEG) and others. When pressure mounts on a European company, it must look more closely at the ROIC of its projects. While you would expect European based projects to be hit most severely, early stage efforts in the States that are not going to return on investment soon, must also be curtailed in many cases. That means American jobs are lost, despite the government’s declaration of domestic economic gains. It contributes to unemployment, and it depletes tax revenues, curtails consumer spending and costs us in unemployment benefit payouts. It will affect our GDP.

Meanwhile, money center banks with global operations are pointing to Europe as the source of their earnings disappointments, as rumors of related layoffs swirl. The latest to blame the European crisis for its direct and indirect impacts on its operations was Citigroup (NYSE: C) Tuesday. Analysts expect a fourth quarter loss from Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) in its upcoming report this week, on market and regulatory pressures. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) will also report later this week. Citi’s Chief Executive, Vikram Pandit, shed light Tuesday saying, ”Clearly, the macro environment has impacted the capital markets and we will continue to right-size our businesses to match the environment.” Citi is cutting 5,000 jobs away, which is more than the 4,500 it said it would in December; that might reflect a deteriorating trend more so than discovered inefficiencies. Despite the already significant job cuts across major international banks with U.S. operations, we very well could see more from the likes of those already mentioned, Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), UBS (NYSE: UBS) and the rest.

In conclusion, the impacts of European weakness on the U.S. economy are currently visible and already measurable. Yet, the U.S. stock market has reflected enthusiasm tied to a synthetically driven consumer sector and a misleading employment situation, which we discussed here previously. Considering that the struggling region accounts for 20% of American exports, and given its trajectory, it is capable of diverting American recovery and deserves more attention in the weightings of valuation and scenario analysis. The signs of this effect had until now been somewhat vague to see, but they are growing clearer with time, and I expect they will eventually be impossible for the stock market to ignore.

Article is relevant to Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), Lloyds Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclays (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Bank (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamericano (NYSE: BLX), National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY), BBVA Banco Frances (NYSE: BFR), The Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE), Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM), ING Groep (NYSE: ING), Citigroup (NYSE: C).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

THE IMPORTANCE OF MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY

What really gets me is how in the year 2012 a lot of people still think Martin Luther King Jr. Day is a holiday just for the black people because Martin Luther King was a black man that is not the case. Martin Luther King stood for equality for all people. Martin Luther King wanted a person to be judged by the content of their character not the color of their skin. If there were no Martin Luther King then there would not be integrated sports teams, schools, neighborhoods and work places. There would not be minority businesses, which are still surviving in this economy. Martin Luther King’s message made it where we have a minority President. I don’t understand when some people when they say enjoy your day off, it should be their day off too it is a federal holiday. Martin Luther King Day is a day of celebration a day for volunteering in your community. Here are some events that are going around the bay where you can go. Here are links for San Francisco http://savvycities.com/mlk-day-san-francisco-bay/ , Palo Alto, Mt View and San Jose http://milpitas.patch.com/articles/martin-luther-king-jr-day-around-the-bay-area , in Oakland, Berkeley and Union City http://milpitas.patch.com/articles/martin-luther-king-jr-day-around-the-bay-area

If you have the day off go and celebrate Martin Luther King Jr. Day maybe you will understand why this day is so important and learn something.

LM