Debt Management: Greece

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Senin, 23 Januari 2012

The Greece Iran Oil Connection

As the west prepares a steep set of sanctions geared to stifle Iran, Greece raises an important query. The debt laden Hellenes would like to know what will happen to their vulnerable economy if the nation’s preferable Iranian oil supply contracts are replaced with more costly sources? Furthermore, if its GDP is impacted as a result of the untimely action, causing it to fall short of qualifying thresholds for its foreign funding, would that be overlooked by its critical debt holders?

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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The Greece Iran Oil Connection

It’s a fair question for Greece to ask with its economic growth already under drag by the austerity demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its European brothers. Greece sourced a significant 14% of its imported oil from Iran in the first half of 2011, and has sourced up to 23% of its oil imports from its ancient counterpart at times. According to a Bloomberg article quoting an anonymous Greek diplomat, Greece wants to ensure that if that oil is replaced, it will receive identical terms, which exclude financial guarantees.

Under normal circumstances, such a condition would not even be considered, but while Greece is under the economic microscope of the IMF, it wants to avoid new obstacles to reaching already challenging goals set by its lenders of last resort. Thus, last week, Greece held up the EU’s sanctions which would stop the flow of Iranian oil to the region. Agitated European officials have indicated that assurances will be made to Greece, but that the details will be worked out after this week’s agreement on sanctions is in place. It’s unclear whether such hastily made promises will be adequate for Greek politicians who cannot afford to place a single new burden on the shoulders of Greece’s aggravated populace.

Given Greece’s poor credibility, it is unlikely to find better terms on the open market than it gets from its likewise desperate Iranian trading partner. So, the question posed to Europe is, will it subsidize the difference in cost to Greece? Otherwise, some leeway must be given Greece, with regard to the steep economic goals it’s been forced to set.

What we are seeing in this latest situation is similar to the chaos that ensued when the former Greek Prime Minister proposed a referendum for the Greek people to decide for themselves whether their future would be with or without the euro currency. It shows that Europe is no stronger than its weakest link, and that the Greeks have more bargaining leverage than most understand. Finally, Greek politicians seem to be realizing that Europe needs Greece to stay solvent as much as Greece needs its financial assistance. Clearly, the most obvious concern to Europe is how a disorderly disposition of Greece would reel Portuguese, Spanish and Italian debt markets.

The current situation also highlights the important position Iran holds in the stability of the already shaky global marketplace. As the U.S. and Europe gear to pressure the Iranians, the question raised by Greece presents Iran with interesting information. Every plan to cut off Iranian oil is civil and arranged to ease the process, but the situation is not civil, if it is not economic warfare. So I have a question: What if the Iranians were to realize the plan set for them and understand their current position. They might just do the unexpected and cut off their own oil flow abruptly, and so, disruptively to Greece, Europe and the civilized world. Perhaps Greece’s negotiations with the EU in this regard should have been kept in closed quarters.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Sabtu, 14 Januari 2012

Bad Signs for Greece

The latest days’ news wire has been full of bad signs for Greece. While you have to infer a bit and see implications to developments in order to say so, it’s not too far a reach to see what could be stewing for Greece this winter is not a warming trend.

Greece May Yet Default

The latest omen came last week, when negotiations broke off between the Greek government and private bondholders. The effort is geared to liquidate about half of Greece’s private debt or 100 billion euros worth at the cost of the bondholders. It’s a lesser evil choice for the bondholders, which is only acceptable because it may help preserve the remaining portion of their investment in or loans to Greece.

This very important effort for Greece’s recovery is now also a critical step for its short-term survival. This is because it must be accomplished in order for Greece to qualify for its next tranche of aid funding from the international community. Representatives of the bondholders stated that they were stepping away in order to “pause for reflection.” The quandary is created because of math and capital markets, as the Greeks are really seeking more than the 50% cut discussed, because the effective market value of the bonds will likely drop immediately when the bond swap takes place. That said, if Greece recovers, the contract value should be approximated by market interest.

Clearly, if Greece defaults, bondholders will be left with empty hands, so Greece does have some negotiating power. However, the bondholders also know that Greece wants to avoid default and that they are needed for that process. It seems to me that whatever will satisfy the IMF is what should be adopted at this point.

Compounding the problem, Greece just reported that its budget deficit expanded in 2011 by 0.8%, to 21.64 billion euros. It was a bit better than the government’s revised forecast, but its details reflect fundamental obstacles to Greece’s economic and fiscal recovery. Despite all the government’s new taxes to lift revenues, and its expense reduction efforts, the budget still widened. That was because personal income tax collection actually softened and its ordinary budget revenue generation fell by 1.7%. Meanwhile, despite its cost cutting efforts, spending rose by 2.8% on the significantly increased debt service costs that plague the embattled nation. There should be no surprise here for readers of my column, as I’ve argued readily against the logic of harsh short-sighted austerity.

The budget deficit is supposed to have shrunk to a smaller portion of Greece’s gross domestic product. How you get there with GDP declining and the deficit rising defies my understanding. Maybe it’s European math. In any event, there’s very little here to reassure the troika nor the capital markets that Greece is making progress, and so the pressure remains.

It seems to me, given Standard & Poor’s sovereign debt slashing of much of the euro zone Friday, that it is hedging if not forecasting Greek default or some sort of unsavory result. Nine countries were downgraded in total, with the most damage done to France and Austria, which lost their top grades. Germany was spared, with its constitutional construct cited as a safety against its government’s potential for making poor decisions.

This coming week, the IMF resumes debt talks with Greece, sending a “mission team” to Athens as part of the review process. All the above discussed matters will be reviewed. Perhaps the presence of the IMF and renewed understanding of the criticality of “private sector involvement” will bring a conciliatory and cooperative tone and progress for Greece. However, the signs are bad.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Sabtu, 10 Desember 2011

Greece's Ill-Advised Austerity Continues to Pain Greeks

Yet more obvious alarms rang against the false wisdom of austerity this week, though sounding through the deaf ears of Greek and EU politicians. But the fat-headed false prophets will continue squeezing Greeks for as long as they’ll bear it, as creative expansionary economic ideas fail to reach their feta filled brain cavities, apparently the reserve tank for their globular bellies. Some will argue that there is no other way, given the thumb of the IMF and EU slave masters upon us. We argued otherwise in a recent article worth your notation, and an advised reading for those Greek politicians who think they have to eat whatever the troika serves them.

Greece's Austerity Pains Greeks

This week, Greece reported unemployment at 17.5% for September. That was conspicuously improved from the 18.4% rate posted in August. Given that the data is not seasonally adjusted, you would expect the rate to have risen from the period more notable for tourism. Either Greeks have just got their priorities aligned differently than Americans, and chose to enjoy their time off in August (highly likely), or they’ve migrated throughout Europe in search of work. That would fit the increase in the euro zone unemployment rate for the same period, up to 10.2% in September from 10.1% in August. Perhaps Greece is exporting unemployment, something supported by data that follows here below.

Other economic data reported this week for the third quarter indicate a remarkable drop in economic activity. Obviously, the greatest driving factor for that is the loss of confidence in Greece tied to what seems an increased risk of a disorderly ejection from the euro zone. That same concern has driven long-term Greek debt yields to 32% (on 10-year bonds). The latest economic data showed Investment contracted by 15.2% from last year to 6.5 billion euros; private consumption fell by 5.5% to 33.7 billion euros; public consumption slipped 3.9% to 8.5 billion euros; wholesale turnover disintegrated by 10.9%; and imports fell by 4.3% to 14.2 billion euros. Only exports grew in the third quarter, rising 3.2% to 13.8 billion euros. Though I have to wonder whether exports included unemployed Greeks seeking work or the sales of used furniture and treasured family heirlooms across the border via eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY).

Given the latest economic destruction depicted in the third quarter data, Greece will likely fall short of its expectations for 5.5% GDP contraction this year. According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSAT), gross domestic product shrank 5% in the third quarter. For the year-to-date, Greece is short some 6.9% against the prior year. Based on a range of analysts’ expectations for 2.5% to 3.5% contraction in Q4, Greece is more likely to show GDP contraction of 6% for the year.

This, of course, means that Greece’s revenue projections are overstated, not to mention undermined by austerity. Therefore, its budget deficit is likely to again prove unsatisfactory to its troika of slave masters. Without a revelation of common sense among politicians, this event should propel the unholy death spiral that torments Greeks further with new impetus for more austerity in 2012. That is unless Greek and European politicians realize what students of the Great Depression already understand clearly, that times of economic strife are precisely wrong for budget controls including higher and/or new taxes. What Greece needs is an extended time span to achieve a better budget. Through a moderate implementation of less aggressive austerity, it could achieve a long lasting improvement that would also be digestible by its populace, and thus feasible.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Senin, 05 Desember 2011

Greece has More Bargaining Leverage than its Politicians Understand

When former Greek Prime Minister Papandreou proposed a referendum for the Greek people to decide on whether to accept continued austerity and the “grand barter” agreed to by Greece’s new troika of slave masters, we learned something. As European bond yields went soaring from Spain across to Italy and even up to France, and as European kingpins arms went flailing up into the air in complaint, something became plainly clear. Greece has more bargaining leverage than its politicians understand.

Our founder, Markos Kaminis, earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: NBG, NYSE: OTE, NYSE: CCH, NYSE: TK, NYSE: NM, NYSE: NNA, NYSE: NMM, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: OSG, NYSE: ISH, NYSE: EXM, NYSE: SB, NYSE: SEA, NYSE: GNK, NYSE: DSX, NYSE: DAC, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: SFL, NYSE: NAT, NYSE: SSW, NYSE: GMR, NYSE: DHT, NYSE: MPX, Nasdaq: DRYS, Nasdaq: TOPS, Nasdaq: EGLE, Nasdaq: SINO, Nasdaq: PRGN, NYSE: KSP, Nasdaq: ESEA, Nasdaq: SBLK, Nasdaq: ONAV, Nasdaq: VLCCF, Nasdaq: TBSI, Nasdaq: GLNG, Nasdaq: XSEAX, Nasdaq: ACLI, NYSE: DB, Nasdaq: ITUB, NYSE: STD, NYSE: WBK, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: LYG, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: CS, NYSE: AIB, NYSE: BLX, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: C, NYSE: GS, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: MS, NYSE: EEA, Nasdaq: VEURX, NYSE: PEF, NYSE: EKH, NYSE: GUR, NYSE: EPV, NYSE: VEA, NYSE: DFE, NYSE: DEB, NYSE: IEV, NYSE: RNE, Nasdaq: SERAX, Nasdaq: SERBX, Nasdaq: FEUFX, Nasdaq: FIEUX, Nasdaq: IERAX, Nasdaq: PBEUX, Nasdaq: UEPIX, Nasdaq: PEUGX, Nasdaq: RYAEX

Greece has Bargaining Leverage

What is unclear is whether he knew what he was doing or not, but the former Greek PM was ridiculed across the American popular press and across Europe for his ignorant, if not negligent action. Though, we questioned within these pages whether it might be pure genius or simply his soft heart at work behind the untimely and completely unexpected political posture. We also wondered if the respected legend of Greek politics might even be reading our column, considering that we had suggested Greece’s politicians ask Greeks what they wanted just days before Papandreou’s so-called shocking proposal.

How the move will work out for PASOK in February remains unclear, but I would assume the sacrifice of Papandreou will save some seats in Parliament. It even gives PASOK a chance at the premiership, something that was highly improbable otherwise. But more importantly, we should take note of the reaction of Greeks, which was one of introspection; of the markets, which was catastrophic; and of the look in the eyes of European leaders, which was one of fear.

Greeks suddenly had to approach the situation from the perspective of the nation on the whole, for turning down foreign aid and turning away from austerity measures would also lead to Greece’s disorderly exit from the euro zone. That’s not something that even the hardest hit of Greeks are sure would be in Greece’s best interests. The result of this might perhaps lead an unemployed Greek to a café to think deeply about the issue, rather than to start fires at the steps of the Parliament.

The markets were shocked, with debt yields across other at-issue European states soaring just days after all seemed finally set straight. The markets anticipated an even more serious loss of confidence in the European Union and in the euro zone. After all, if the EU could not cure Greece, due to the interests of Greeks, then perhaps the same result would follow in Spain and Italy, and if Italy, then why not also France. That reality set European politicians straight, so to speak, and allowed us to see clearly that the great homeland of our ancestors did not have to just accept whatever proposals the stern troika declared at us. Indeed, Europe has a stake in Greece, and in keeping it intact in the euro zone.

Therefore, Greek politicians have been grossly underestimating their bargaining position with the troika. The constricting austerity measures shoved down the throats of Greeks do not have to be so burdensome to our economic sustenance, nor to growth. We have the power to demand a longer time-line to meet debt level goals and repayment requirements. We can experiment with creative, growth encouraging policies, and ease austerity on our nation to correct its inherent flaws in a manner less disruptive to a way of living embedded in today’s society. Therefore, social upheaval could be mitigated, and Greece could find a way out of this mess with its integrity intact and the finances of its people in existence. I suggest Greek politicians reconsider, and realize that they hold a stronger hand than they’ve been told. They should reweigh the fact that there is a consistency of Greece’s goals with those of the troika, the greatest of which is to keep Greece within the euro zone.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Senin, 21 November 2011

Papademos on a Stick

Lucas Papademos Greek Prime Minister PM George Papandreou

It seems Greeks are coming to grips with the reality that their new leader, Lucas Papademos, may offer a different face to watch on television, but he comes with even stauncher support of the troika’s austerity medicine than the embattled George Papandreou. Indeed, the European Union’s man and once #2 at the European Central Bank (ECB) has openly stated that exit from the euro zone is not an option. Well, Greeks are learning that this means the austerity forced down their throats is also not clearing out. So, it seems, it may not be long before the popular support for Papademos turns out to actually be a sort of marinade.

Our founder Markos Kaminis earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

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A Political Sacrificial Lamb

Political jockeying ahead of a likely February election has Greece’s new Prime Minister, Lucas Papademos, being held out on a stick like a souvlaki cooking over the fires of Greek rioters, the IMF and Greece’s European brothers. Papandreou’s referendum concession was either a show of pure stupidity, unequivocal ethical heart or political genius. From the political perspective, Papandreou’s calling on the Greek people to decide whether to go forth with the European plan, and thus accept austerity and also ongoing euro zone membership, forced Greeks to take a second look at the situation and also at the PASOK Party. His stepping back has placed PASOK into a position that allows for potential reconciliation come election time.

New Democracy, not missing a beat and with its eye on February, has been publicly promoting an idea to ditch the digging austerity plan and to instead take a sort of American Republican approach to promote economic growth and trust in trickle-down economics; though the Greek version might look more like Chios mastic’s slow and painful ooze down a dry bark. The other, more radical parties are of course offering more radical solutions.

Needless to say, the political commotion has the troika terrified that tranches of capital dished out to Greece between now and February might end up wasted, sort of like how Zorbas spent his boss’ supply money on drink and women. So the IMF is refusing to dole out any more funds before a pledge is signed by the major political parties, if not all of them, to keep on the path outlined. That path, for Greeks, has been relayed as including the implementation of all already passed austerity measures, but the introduction of no new burden upon them.

So, it would seem Papademos is cooking like a souvlaki on a stick, and it would appear Greeks will have their kabob well done by February. The current popular support of him is thus near certain to turn to a lynching party, with the technocrat set to burn at the stake. Both New Democracy and PASOK are more than willing to step away now to allow the Greeks to pepper up Papademos, get their fill of him, and offer sweet dessert to them in February. But the sugar for that dessert must be acquired now from German and French patisseries.

The lesson long forgotten but to be learned anew is for governments across the globe. The lost wisdom is that the mismanagement of the people’s money results in uprising. The people will turn everything upside down and start all over again before they will bear the pain for the mistakes of faulty leadership.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Rabu, 02 November 2011

Papandreou's Referendum Genius

We recently published an article entitled, “Oxi Day Still Means No to Greeks,” within which we discussed the continued misery of Greeks despite the agreement to give Greece a “haircut” on their debt obligations. We suggested in the piece that Greeks have continued to disagree with their government, despite this celebrated grand barter. Well, it seems Prime Minister Papandreou is calling us on that. Tuesday, he announced that he would ask the Greek people what they would like to do. Everything hangs in the balance as a result.

Papandreou’s Referendum Genius

Surprising his European brothers, his countrymen and even members of his own party, Greece’s Prime Minister Papandreou Tuesday called for a referendum on the latest debt deal which would effectively cut the country’s bond debts in half. Of course, Greece is expected to keep to its austerity efforts implemented already, and to pay back the IMF what it owes it. Thereby, nothing much changes for Greeks at street level, and the Greek economy will continue to carry a heavy load. Thus, despite the grand barter so celebrated on Wall Street, misery remains for Greeks.

Alexander Stubb, Finnish Minister of European Affairs and Foreign Trade, declared the vote would effectively be a decision about Greece’s ongoing membership in the euro zone. Certainly, from an outside perspective, this action by the Greek leader would seem akin to looking a gift horse in the mouth. After all, half of Greece’s bond debts would be forgiven. But the view from the streets of Greece is much different, where 60% of the polled population (seems like more) stands against the austerity measures and the suggestion of their necessity. Furthermore, while the Prime Minister and his government have found support from rivals in prior votes of confidence, many of those political lions have at the same time been rallying the masses for a later toppling of Papandreou and his PASOK Party.

Yet Tuesday, several PASOK partisans resigned from their positions in a loud expression of disapproval, leaving Papandreou with just a slim representative majority in Parliament. The loss of his vulnerable majority could lead to an early election, and thus expedite the government’s replacement. This also could theoretically lead to Greece rejecting the deal. Still, so many unknowns tag along with what appears an irresponsible and unnecessary direction, that a government led by either of Greece’s major political parties should lead to the same result, the acceptance of the deal. The only way Greece might reject the deal is if the question were posed directly to the people, who unfortunately may not fully comprehend what would happen if Greece were to reject the deal and accept its consequences, the default on its debt and Greece’s ejection from the euro zone.

With such great risk weighing, many are speculating today as to the motive of the Greek prime minister, and of course I have a few ideas myself. It’s possible that Papandreou has grown weary, looking out his window daily at street fires and enflamed countrymen. Perhaps he has been questioning whether his decisions are representing his people’s wishes, and if perhaps the darker route might not be so bad. After all, Iceland has already found its way back, and Ireland seems headed in the right direction as well.

Another idea is that Papandreou is playing political roulette. His despised government could regain some of its lost support, by putting the decision in the hands of the people. When presented with the prospect of ejection from Europe, a community Greeks view inside the bubble of civilization and economic progression, they may make the hard choice themselves. Perhaps the scenario might also ease the so easily rounded up protests, for it is much easier to complain than to take responsibility. Papandreou might just save himself as well, after struggling to keep crutches under his nation.

Other options I find less logical include the idea that Papandreou might be seeking to gain greater leverage to re-negotiate with his European brothers, turned masters. The risk/reward trade-off here is just too far out of balance to adequately defend this theory.

Finally, the simple act of declaring there would be a referendum might have been enough in and of itself to accomplish all goals. European ministers now see the risks of overburdening their desperate brother, and so could ease the burden on Greece with regards to the austerity demands weighing upon it. The Greek people might now better see the position of their embattled leader, and the few options he really has while under bombardment from speculative markets and few resources. Perhaps they understand the dangers of the other option, exit from the euro zone. Therefore, what many are describing today as an unconscionable act of Prime Minister Papandreou, might in fact be pure genius.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

Sabtu, 29 Oktober 2011

Oxi Day Still Means No to Greeks

“We are once again saying no to anyone who would come again to steal our country, whether it be the Germans or anyone else. We say no, and that is final!” Those were the words of a middle-aged woman, the regular sort demonstrating against the austerity measures that chain Greeks even after the latest European resolution.

Oxi Day Still Means No to Greeks!

It was eerily symbolic: the celebration of Oxi Day just a few days after the European Union agreed to slash Greece’s debt burden in half. The Greek word, “Oxi,” of course means no, and the day symbolizes Greece’s response to the demands of Mussolini (and Hitler) for the Hellenic Republic to surrender. Greece’s government agreed to this latest deal, the best option it has been offered yet, but perhaps the Greek people should have been surveyed. They so disrupted the Oxi Day parade in Greece’s second largest city of Thessaloniki, that it was cancelled.

The problem is that while Greece’s government burden has been reduced, no such luxury has been afforded to the Greek people. Austerity programs remain in place, as Greece continues to be indebted in one way or another to its European brothers. Greece’s debt burden was cut in half, and the pain of that event will be born mostly by private investors. European banks with exposure are being infused with 106 billion euro. Finally, to head off any future needed action, a trillion euro fund will be set up to act as a firewall against like crises in Portugal, Italy or elsewhere.

With all the glory of the grand barter, stocks across the globe and in Greece as well, enjoyed a relief rally Thursday. However, the rally ominously stalled on Friday, with the Euro STOXX 50 Index dropping 0.6%, as investors remembered that while imminent catastrophe was mitigated, misery remained. Greece cannot now go back on its progressive measures like its clean up of political and other corruption and its collection of income taxes, nor can it renege on its emergency plans including luxury taxes, pressure on pensioners, or the privatization of publicly owned installations.

Under such austerity, economic growth is impeded, but supporters of order will ask you, “What else can we do?” I say, plenty. Greece at least now has time to put together a better think tank, to give sincere effort to the design of creative ideas that could ease the burden from the people and allow economic growth to sprout. Current conditions will not encourage employment growth, though perhaps, with a tiring populous and the onset of winter, riots may ease and tourism may return in the spring.

It is a pity that the great barter agreed to by the nation finds the same answer from the people who have been protesting so vehemently for so long. That answer is the same issued to Mussolini, and it is still Oxi. Yet, I believe that fewer fresh measures will be pushed upon the people moving forward, which will cut off the kindling from the fire. With the nearing of an important national holiday for the Orthodox Christian nation, I expect Greece will tend to its wounds this winter, and prepare for rebirth in spring.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE or OTC: HLTOY.PK), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.