The Greece Iran Oil Connection

As the west prepares a steep set of sanctions geared to stifle Iran, Greece raises an important query. The debt laden Hellenes would like to know what will happen to their vulnerable economy if the nation’s preferable Iranian oil supply contracts are replaced with more costly sources? Furthermore, if its GDP is impacted as a result of the untimely action, causing it to fall short of qualifying thresholds for its foreign funding, would that be overlooked by its critical debt holders?

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative tickers: NYSE: NBG, NYSE: OTE, NYSE: CCH, NYSE: TK, NYSE: NM, NYSE: NNA, NYSE: NMM, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: OSG, NYSE: ISH, NYSE: EXM, NYSE: SB, NYSE: SEA, NYSE: GNK, NYSE: DSX, NYSE: DAC, NYSE: TNP, NYSE: SFL, NYSE: NAT, NYSE: SSW, NYSE: GMR, NYSE: DHT, NYSE: MPX, Nasdaq: DRYS, Nasdaq: TOPS, Nasdaq: EGLE, Nasdaq: SINO, Nasdaq: PRGN, NYSE: KSP, Nasdaq: ESEA, Nasdaq: SBLK, Nasdaq: ONAV, Nasdaq: VLCCF, Nasdaq: TBSI, Nasdaq: GLNG, Nasdaq: XSEAX, Nasdaq: ACLI, NYSE: DB, Nasdaq: ITUB, NYSE: STD, NYSE: WBK, NYSE: UBS, NYSE: LYG, NYSE: BCS, NYSE: CS, NYSE: AIB, NYSE: BLX, NYSE: BAC, NYSE: C, NYSE: GS, NYSE: JPM, NYSE: MS, NYSE: EEA, Nasdaq: VEURX, NYSE: PEF, NYSE: EKH, NYSE: GUR, NYSE: EPV, NYSE: VEA, NYSE: DFE, NYSE: DEB, NYSE: IEV, NYSE: RNE, Nasdaq: SERAX, Nasdaq: SERBX, Nasdaq: FEUFX, Nasdaq: FIEUX, Nasdaq: IERAX, Nasdaq: PBEUX, Nasdaq: UEPIX, Nasdaq: PEUGX, Nasdaq: RYAEX

The Greece Iran Oil Connection

It’s a fair question for Greece to ask with its economic growth already under drag by the austerity demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its European brothers. Greece sourced a significant 14% of its imported oil from Iran in the first half of 2011, and has sourced up to 23% of its oil imports from its ancient counterpart at times. According to a Bloomberg article quoting an anonymous Greek diplomat, Greece wants to ensure that if that oil is replaced, it will receive identical terms, which exclude financial guarantees.

Under normal circumstances, such a condition would not even be considered, but while Greece is under the economic microscope of the IMF, it wants to avoid new obstacles to reaching already challenging goals set by its lenders of last resort. Thus, last week, Greece held up the EU’s sanctions which would stop the flow of Iranian oil to the region. Agitated European officials have indicated that assurances will be made to Greece, but that the details will be worked out after this week’s agreement on sanctions is in place. It’s unclear whether such hastily made promises will be adequate for Greek politicians who cannot afford to place a single new burden on the shoulders of Greece’s aggravated populace.

Given Greece’s poor credibility, it is unlikely to find better terms on the open market than it gets from its likewise desperate Iranian trading partner. So, the question posed to Europe is, will it subsidize the difference in cost to Greece? Otherwise, some leeway must be given Greece, with regard to the steep economic goals it’s been forced to set.

What we are seeing in this latest situation is similar to the chaos that ensued when the former Greek Prime Minister proposed a referendum for the Greek people to decide for themselves whether their future would be with or without the euro currency. It shows that Europe is no stronger than its weakest link, and that the Greeks have more bargaining leverage than most understand. Finally, Greek politicians seem to be realizing that Europe needs Greece to stay solvent as much as Greece needs its financial assistance. Clearly, the most obvious concern to Europe is how a disorderly disposition of Greece would reel Portuguese, Spanish and Italian debt markets.

The current situation also highlights the important position Iran holds in the stability of the already shaky global marketplace. As the U.S. and Europe gear to pressure the Iranians, the question raised by Greece presents Iran with interesting information. Every plan to cut off Iranian oil is civil and arranged to ease the process, but the situation is not civil, if it is not economic warfare. So I have a question: What if the Iranians were to realize the plan set for them and understand their current position. They might just do the unexpected and cut off their own oil flow abruptly, and so, disruptively to Greece, Europe and the civilized world. Perhaps Greece’s negotiations with the EU in this regard should have been kept in closed quarters.

Editor's Note: This article should interest investors in National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG), Hellenic Telecommunications (NYSE: OTE), Coca-Cola HBC (NYSE: CCH), Teekay Corp. (NYSE: TK), Navios Maritime Holdings (NYSE: NM), Navios Maritime Acquisition (NYSE: NNA), Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE: NMM), Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. (NYSE: TNP), Overseas Shipholding Group (NYSE: OSG), International Shipholding (NYSE: ISH), Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE: EXM), Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping ETF (NYSE: SEA), Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE: GNK), Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX), Danaos (NYSE: DAC), Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TNP), Ship Finance Int'l (NYSE: SFL), Nordic American Tanker (NYSE: NAT), Seaspan (NYSE: SSW), General Maritime (NYSE: GMR), DHT Maritime (NYSE: DHT), Brunswick (NYSE: BC), Marine Products Corp. (NYSE: MPX), DryShips (Nasdaq: DRYS), Top Ships (Nasdaq: TOPS), Eagle Bulk Shipping (Nasdaq: EGLE), Sino-Global Shipping (Nasdaq: SINO), Paragon Shipping (Nasdaq: PRGN), K-SEA Transportation Partners (NYSE: KSP), Euroseas (Nasdaq: ESEA), Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq: SBLK), Omega Navigation (Nasdaq: ONAV), Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. (Nasdaq: VLCCF), TBS Int'l (Nasdaq: TBSI), Golar LNG (Nasdaq: GLNG), Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (Nasdaq: XSEAX), American Commercial Lines (Nasdaq: ACLI), Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB), ITA (Nasdaq: ITUB), Banco Santander (NYSE: STD), Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK), UBS (NYSE: UBS), Lloyd’s Banking Group (NYSE: LYG), Barclay’s (NYSE: BCS), Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB), Banco Latinamerican (NYSE: BLX), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), European Equity Fund (NYSE: EEA), Vanguard European Stock Index (Nasdaq: VEURX), Powershares FTSE RAFI Europe (NYSE: PEF), Europe 2001 (NYSE: EKH), S&P Emerging Europe (NYSE: GUR), Ultrashort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), Vanguard Europe Pacific (NYSE: VEA), Wisdomtree Europe SmallCap (NYSE: DFE), Wisdom Tree Europe Total Div (NYSE: DEB), iShares S&P Europe 350 (NYSE: IEV), Morgan Stanley Eastern Europe (NYSE: RNE), DWS Europe Equity A (Nasdaq: SERAX), DWS Europe Equity B (Nasdaq: SERBX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FEUFX), Fidelity Europe (Nasdaq: FIEUX), ICON Europe A (Nasdaq: IERAX), Pioneer Europe Fund (Nasdaq: PBEUX), ProFunds Europe 30 (Nasdaq: UEPIX), Putnam Europe A (Nasdaq: PEUGX), Rydex Europe 1.25x (Nasdaq: RYAEX).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

House Votes Down Libya War, then Slips Obama a Twenty to Buy a Gun

I woke up Friday morning to the sound of the television playing lightly. I had fallen asleep watching Hillary Clinton testify about the highly disputed withdrawal from Afghanistan, just announced this week by President Obama. Thus, C-SPAN was probably the cause of my rough night’s sleep, full of nonsensical complaints from Democrats, Republicans and anarchists on the Independent line at 3 AM.

Our founder earned clients a 23% average annual return over five years as a stock analyst on Wall Street. "The Greek" has written for institutional newsletters, Businessweek, Real Money, Seeking Alpha and others, while also appearing across TV and radio. While writing for Wall Street Greek, Mr. Kaminis presciently warned of the financial crisis.

Relative Tickers: NYSE: XOM, NYSE: BP, NYSE: PTR, NYSE: PZE, OTC: RYDAF.PK, NYSE: TOT, NYSE: CVX, OTC: REPYY.PK, NYSE: COP, NYSE: E, NYSE: SSL, NYSE: ECA, NYSE: SU, AMEX: IMO, NYSE: STO, NYSE: CVE, NYSE: RIG, NYSE: PWE, NYSE: CLR, NYSE: NE, NYSE: CXO, NYSE: DO, NYSE: ESV, NYSE: WLL, NYSE: NBR, NYSE: PDE, NYSE: HP, NYSE: QEP, NYSE: ERF, NYSE: RDC, NYSE: CIE, Nasdaq: PTEN, NYSE: SD, NYSE: SLB, NYSE: HAL, NYSE: NOV, NYSE: BHI, NYSE: WFT, NYSE: CAM, NYSE: FTI, NYSE: OIS, NYSE: SPN, NYSE: CRR, NYSE: HLX, NYSE: PXD, NYSE: CEO, NYSE: SNP, NYSE: EC, NYSE: CNQ, NYSE: APA, NYSE: APC, NYSE: DVN, NYSE: EOG, NYSE: CHK, NYSE: NOC, NYSE: RTN, NYSE: ATK, NYSE: LMT, NYSE: BA, NYSE: HON, NYSE: GD, NYSE: COL, NYSE: GR, NYSE: LLL, NYSE: SAI, Nasdaq: FLIR, NYSE: ERJ, NYSE: SPR, Nasdaq: BEAV, NYSE: TDG, NYSE: CAE, NYSE: HXL, NYSE: ESL, NYSE: TDY, NYSE: CW, NYSE: HEI, NYSE: TGI, NYSE: ORB, NYSE: AIR, Nasdaq: KAMN, Nasdaq: AVAV, NYSE: DIA, NYSE: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, NYSE: DOG, NYSE: SDS, NYSE: QLD, NYSE: NYX, NYSE: ICE, Nasdaq: NDAQ

House Votes Down Libya War, then Slips Obama a Twenty to Buy a Gun

I woke up to a preacher opening the House of Representatives with a prayer. That strange sight was followed by a clearly novice Congressmen reciting the Pledge of Allegiance in what seemed like a rite of passage. The politicians littering the sparsely populated hall faced the flag behind the Speaker of the House, who turned his back to me to do the same. I think it was the first time I’ve heard the pledge recited since elementary school. Thus, I had to pinch myself, because it was like some strange nightmare reminiscent of past fantastic scares caused by watching Craig Ferguson and drinking Jamaican Rum.

I woke up from the dream before I died, I suppose ahead of murder by an angry Representative. Dennis Kucinich lambasted his Democratic brother, the president, for his unconstitutional war on Libya. The Ohio little-man’s advocate surely risked a heart-attack, raising his blood pressure to its maximum so early in the morn. I remembered how he once flew in Air Force One to the Midwest, when the president needed him to back off his righteous rant for an important vote. I thought, well at least I can be sure he wasn’t brainwashed or microchipped or replaced by an alien on that day, because he was adamantly in opposition to President Obama on this day. Why he was mad was not so clear. It could have been because he couldn’t keep up his streak of running for president this coming election year, with the incumbent Obama blocking the way. Or, it could have been the same reason Congressman Pall mentioned, which was the president’s oversight of the constitution when determining to rain down rockets on Muammar Gaddafi.

You can’t blame Obama for not coming to Congress for approval, despite the fact that the declaration of war is still within the realm of the people’s house. I mean, if I were President, I would also follow the lead of Ronald Reagan and every president since when determining I needed to knock some sense into a despot. They would have to pull that whip from me kicking and screaming.

On this day, the House was voting to authorize conflict with Libya about 100 days after the start of the latest fabulously named war game - Operation Odyssey Dawn. Cool right? It’s like the Desert Storm nonsense the Pentagon designed to drum up recruits. I suppose they have PR people devising them, and like a trailer for a film it draws your support. The name of these operations also tricks twittering teens without college admission tickets into enlisting into the marines. Odyssey Dawn has a different ring to it than “I’m going to risk my life for a bunch of ragtag Libyan tribesmen.”

I wonder if the Libyan issue is not at the core of this week’s torrential trading, yet while still hidden behind the popular press’ vision. You see, Libya produces high-quality oil, the kind refined into the all important gasoline at the heart of the latest consumer concern and manufacturing mayhem. It’s no coincidence that oil spiked and fired gasoline to $4 once conflict erupted in Libya, not to mention the mess in Bahrain.

As time has passed, it’s become clear that no Libyan, not Gaddafi nor angry toothless peasant fighter-man, has interest in disrupting the nation’s sacred cash cow. And with the lip service of the Saudi’s following OPEC’s greedy grimace, we now have the IEA releasing 2 million barrels a day (over 30 days) from its emergency reserves. The U.S. is also contributing to this supply from its strategic oil reserve. You see, while it took a while, the highly touted economic Brainrust hired by the Obama Administration, finally figured out that gasoline matters to the economy and that Libya matters to gasoline. It’s sort of like a 2+2 math equation, so the Ivy Leaguers up there missed it. They were understandably spending their time with algorithms designed to determine how far the downfall would be if the debt ceiling were allowed to collapse. All in good time, or rather, all in short time… I suppose that catastrophe will cue the third horn blowing angel. I fell asleep before intermission, so forgive me if we are up to the fourth siren already.

Anyway, the House of Representatives took up two important bills Friday involving the hostilities in Libya, though the Obama Administration says they are more like a slap-fight than “hostilities,” which would have required them to cease unauthorized operations already by law. The first legislation, taken up while Kucinich was still boiling, was the authorization for the President to wage a watchamacallit - but not a war - against Libya. The House, with a ragtag group of Democrats and Republicans, voted that down. Yet, with the President’s argument that what he’s having in Libya is just a little harmless argument between friends, only employing missile firing Predator aircraft like sharp biting words, he could continue.

The second bill could have stopped him though, as it covered the appropriation of funding toward the conflict. However, those same so-called righteous representatives voted that bill down, thereby slapping the President’s hand and enjoying the solid short-takes they’ll use in their campaigning next year. Jolly good service my dear proxies.

In any event, Libya matters. Since we started on this path, we must now get the semi-catatonic Gaddafi out of office in order to secure safe passage of Libya’s special oil. We’ll design a top of the line constitution for the toothless tribesmen who take over to corruptly run their government, and everything will get back to normal. It seems the Europeans also understand the importance of winning the war in Libya, and are in it with conviction. Thus, it should be a short time now before we hear the song sung in Tripoli, the King Slug is dead, long live the new CIA implant!

Article interests investors in Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon (NYSE: RTN), Alliant Techsystems (NYSE: ATK), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Boeing (NYSE: BA), NYSE: IWM, NYSE: TWM, NYSE: IWD, Honeywell (NYSE: HON), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Rockwell Collins (NYSE: COL), Goodrich (NYSE: GR), L-3 Communications (NYSE: LLL), SAIC (NYSE: SAI), FLIR Systems (Nasdaq: FLIR), EMBRAER (NYSE: ERJ), Spirit Aerosystems (NYSE: SPR), BE Aerospace (Nasdaq: BEAV), TransDigm Group (NYSE: TDG), CAE (NYSE: CAE), Hexcel (NYSE: HXL), Esterline Technologies (NYSE: ESL), Teledyne Technologies (NYSE: TDY), Curtiss-Wright (NYSE: CW), HEICO (NYSE: HEI), Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI), Orbital Sciences (NYSE: ORB), AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR), Kaman Corp. (Nasdaq: KAMN), AeroVironment (Nasdaq: AVAV), Smith & Wesson (Nasdaq: SWHC), DigitalGlobe (NYSE: DGI), GenCorp (NYSE: GY), Hawk (AMEX: HWK), LMI Aerospace (Nasdaq: LMIA), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), BP (NYSE: BP), PetroChina (NYSE: PTR), Petrobras (NYSE: PZE), Royal Dutch Shell (OTC: RYDAF.PK), Total (NYSE: TOT), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Repsol (OTC: REPYY.PK), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Eni SpA (NYSE: E), Sasol (NYSE: SSL), Encana (NYSE: ECA), Suncor (NYSE: SU), Imperial Oil (AMEX: IMO), Statoil (NYSE: STO), Cenovus (NYSE: CVE), Transocean (NYSE: RIG), Penn West Petroleum (NYSE: PWE), Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR), Noble (NYSE: NE), Concho (NYSE: CXO), Diamond Offshore (NYSE: DO), Ensco (NYSE: ESV), Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL), Nabors (NYSE: NBR), Pride International (NYSE: PDE), Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP), QEP Resources (NYSE: QEP), Enerplus (NYSE: ERF), Rowan (NYSE: RDC), Cobalt (NYSE: CIE), Patterson UTI (Nasdaq: PTEN), SandRidge (NYSE: SD), Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV), Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI), Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT), Cameron (NYSE: CAM), FMC Tech (NYSE: FTI), Oil States International (NYSE: OIS), Superior Energy (NYSE: SPN), Carbo Ceramics (NYSE: CRR), Helix Energy (NYSE: HLX), Pioneer (NYSE: PXD), CNOOC (NYSE: CEO), China Petroleum and Chemical (NYSE: SNP), Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE: CNQ), Apache (NYSE: APA), Anadarko (NYSE: APC), Devon (NYSE: DVN), EOG (NYSE: EOG), Chesapeake (NYSE: CHK).

Please see our disclosures at the Wall Street Greek website and author bio pages found there. This article and website in no way offers or represents financial or investment advice. Information is provided for entertainment purposes only.